Inside The Stock Market ...trends, cross-currents, and outlook
S&P 400 Mid Cap: An Easy Benchmark To Beat In 2006
The S&P 400 Mid Cap index had a tough year in 2006. On the other hand, The Leuthold Group’s Mid Cap Index did very well, up 21% in 2006.
January Market Action
The U.S. stock market continued to track higher during the first month of the year, despite the fact that individual investors continued to watch from the sidelines.
Mutual Fund Flow…..U.S. Equity Fund Flow Falls Flat In January
The $4.1 billion going into open-end U.S. stock funds is clearly indicating that Main Street investors are entering 2007 with a cautious outlook for the U.S. stock market.
Outlook For Energy
A look at the GS Scores for the broad Energy sector in light of the recent decline in crude oil prices. Today, only one of the Energy related groups is rated Attractive, while 3 are Neutral and 3 Unattractive.
Perfect Conditions For LBOs…..Implications As An Investment Theme
Relatively low interest rates combined with strong earnings growth and a build up of corporate cash has created a perfect environment for LBOs. Jim Floyd created a quantitative screen back in February 2006 that attempts to uncover the most attractive LBO stocks.
Mutual Fund Flow…..Main Street Again Ignores U.S. Stock Market Strength In 2006
As measured by the lackluster levels of cash flow into U.S. equity funds, much of 2006 saw a low level of interest in the U.S. stock on the part of Main Street investors, despite the continued gains posted by U.S. equity indexes.
December Market Action
Many of the broad market indexes climbed to new cyclical highs in late-December, confirming that 2007 is almost certain to begin with a bull market still in command.
Playing The Bounce Update: Bounce Falters In December (Individual Investor Tax Selling)
The weak December performance is to be expected, as many of these “Bounce” stocks likely came under additional selling pressure as individuals were cleaning out their portfolios at year end.
Emerging Market Equities – Frothy Sentiment Could Weigh On Asset Class Near Term
Emerging Markets have attracted a lot of investor interest...possibly too much interest. This seems to be just about everyone’s favorite investment for 2007.
A Look In The Rearview Mirror...The Best And Worst Of Our Research In 2006
Our annual “Look In The Rearview Mirror”, a critical examination of the research in 2006...the good and the bad.
Weighted Versus Unweighted: Inside The S&P 500
In 2006, the capitalization weighted S&P 500 was up 13.6%, excluding dividends. The average return for the 500 stocks (S&P equally weighted) was up 14.2%.
View From The North Country
Steve Leuthold highlights his 2007 Outlook in this month’s “View From The North Country”.
Update On Japan...Holding Our Positions, But Watching Closely
Recent market action appears to be indicating that cyclical forces have, for the time being, put Japan’s stock market recovery on hold.
View From The North Country
Leuthold shares summary comments on various subjects, such as Consumer Sentiment, and the dollar, among others. Also, airlines as growth stocks (?) and the 2006 Elections: the Incumbent advantage still dominates.
Playing The Bounce Update: Bounce Working Nicely So Far
Prior to 1992, the returns generated by this exercise were in the 15% to 20% range before being closed out in the subsequent year. 2006-2007 performance is so far on track to match or exceed this range.
November Market Action
Small caps bolted out of the gates early in the month, ending November with gains that were ahead of the large cap indexes.
Mutual Fund Flow…..Public Still Clamoring To Foreign Equity Funds, Avoiding U.S. Equity Funds
For open end equity funds, the last seven months have seen nearly $28 billion of net redemptions despite the fact that the S&P 500 has risen almost 7%.
Some Erosion - But Not A Collapse - In The Wall Of Worry
The surprising restraint in investor enthusiasm has been a key pillar behind our bullish case for the stock market.
Cash Acquisitions...Shrinking The Float Of The U.S. Stock Market At A Record Rate
The key to the 2006 Supply/Demand factors has been the huge level of Cash Acquisitions this year. Current levels smash prior 2005 record level. This bullish trend could continue to support a rising stock market.
Small Cap Earnings Lag As Economic Recovery Matures
Third quarter earnings show a widening gap between Small Cap earnings growth and Large Cap earnings growth. In the past two recessions, the gap in earnings growth between these two market cap tiers also widened with Small Cap earnings fading.
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