Inside The Stock Market ...trends, cross-currents, and outlook

The last time there were six consecutive months of net outflow was over seventeen years ago, in 1989, when a protracted period of monthly net outflow followed the 1987 stock market crash.

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Election should be a non-event for stock market. No matter which party gains control of House or Senate, we expect to see two more years of gridlock. Also, still bullish on Industrial Metals and the unusual behavior of U.S. Equity Fund Flows.

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The stock market’s turbocharged advance continued into October, putting YTD performance for the majority of broad market indexes into the double-digits.

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Prior to 1992, the returns generated by this exercise were in the 15% to 20% range before being closed out in the subsequent year. 2006-2007 Performance is so far on track to match or exceed this range.

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Sentiment measures still show pessimism among investors. Doug Ramsey looks at the current sentiment gauges for the market and also examines the current sentiment readings for 24 broad industries groups.

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Group rotation has made it tough for managers to outperform. There has been a lack of sustainable leadership.

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Some clients have been asking if private equity firms are responsible for this record level activity. The truthful answer is, well....yes and no.

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Despite the stronger stock market, there continues to be a healthy degree of bearish sentiment prevalent in today’s market.

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While we currently favor little to no allocation to Consumer stocks, we realize that many clients must maintain a substantial weight in the Consumer Discretionary sector. For those clients, we are proposing a new thematic stock market group this month: The Strapped Consumer.

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Perhaps if you were living in some obscure quarter of the Amazon jungle for the last month, you may not have heard the news that the Dow Jones Industrials Average was approaching and finally achieved a new all-time high in late-September and early October.

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For the traditional equity funds, this was the fifth straight month of net redemptions.

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On a long term basis, we continue to be concerned about the sustainability of the current economic expansion, and we expect a significant slowdown by mid 2007.

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Investors have soured on Industrial Metals equities, likely based on the belief that the prices of the underlying physical metals have stopped going up.

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Six of eight recessions since 1957 saw signals registered by the Transportation Divergence monitor. Recent divergence may be warning of an impending economic contraction.

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Market breadth improving, but still relatively weak. Narrowing breadth can, however, persist for a long time. There was a two year period of diverging breadth in 1998 to 1999, prior to the last bear market.

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We have been taking the opportunity each month to highlight a portion of our groups’ insider buying and selling scores. This month, we are presenting the groups with the best insider scores.

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While the figures do not suggest much growth in demand for domestic equity funds since last year, they do indicate that ETFs are gaining market share.

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Even before Major Trend Index improved to Neutral, Leuthold was getting more bullish. Also, Is the Sun Rising or is it Setting on Japan?

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S&P 500 is now within striking distance of hitting new cyclical highs.

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Value continues to have leadership position over Growth among Large Cap stocks. Mid Caps also shifting to favor Value, but Growth still leading in the Small Cap tier.

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