Inside The Stock Market ...trends, cross-currents, and outlook

In the past few years, we’ve shared our concerns that traditional market breadth measures may have become compromised by several developments.

• Read more

Bond market strategists remain hell bent on identifying the key yield level on 10-year Treasuries at which one can finally declare an end to the 1981-20XX secular bond bull market.

• Read more

Things were bigger when you were a kid. Like that enormous sweatshirt your aunt gave you for your birthday or that hand-me-down ten-speed bike with the cross bar taller than your shoulders.

• Read more

During the first four trading days of 2018, the S&P 500 managed to match its 93-year average annual real price gain of +2.6%.

• Read more

Inaction has been a richly rewarded trait throughout the current bull market, and especially in 2017.

• Read more

If stock market breadth and leadership look nothing like they typically do at cyclical peaks, neither does momentum.

• Read more

The remarkable stock market breadth and momentum chronicled in these pages doesn’t come without a price.

• Read more

The first few trading days of the new year have been a seamless extension of 2017—a low-volatility, “measured” market melt-up.

• Read more

We impatiently published this study two months ago instead of properly waiting for full-year numbers.

• Read more

While our Group Selection (GS) framework hasn’t yet warmed up to commodity-oriented industries, our macro work suggests perhaps it should.

• Read more

We are contrarians at heart, but learned quickly that successful contrarian investing is far more complicated than simply buying assets that are down the most in price.

• Read more

Last year’s Bridesmaid gain of +21.8% matched the benchmark (obviously, since it was entirely invested in the benchmark).

• Read more

The concept of risk is hardly at the forefront of the investor psyche after the second-least volatile year in stock market history.

• Read more

Here’s another way to look at the persistence of momentum across asset classes for the last 45 years.

• Read more

Our analysis of the Bridesmaid effect originated more than a decade ago, with an initial focus on equity sectors rather than asset classes.

• Read more

Table 3 shows annual performance results for the Bridesmaid sector strategy under all four rebalancing frequencies, along with the sector selection for the annual version of the strategy.

• Read more

For those not psychologically suited to a momentum approach, we’ve developed a contrarian sector allocation strategy that’s delivered even better long-term performance than the Bridesmaid approach.

• Read more

Table 5 shows annual performance results for the Cheapest Sector strategy under all four rebalancing frequencies, along with the lowest P/E sector for the annual version of the strategy.

• Read more

For nearly three decades The Leuthold Group has tracked hypothetical portfolios composed of the previous year’s industry group “Dreams” and “Nightmares.”

• Read more

In previous studies, we looked at two classic factors for employing a country rotation strategy: valuation and momentum.

• Read more