Inside The Stock Market ...trends, cross-currents, and outlook
Rates: Does Trend Or Level Matter More?
Our Dow Bond Oscillator (chart) issued what looks like an increasingly prescient SELL signal on January 26th.
Market Pressure Points?
Last month we detailed a handful of economic and monetary measures that were approaching critical thresholds from a stock market perspective.
Implications Of Extreme Momentum
Historically, leadership and breadth accompanying an upside market move is far more predictive than the pure momentum of the move. But when intermediate-term momentum is not just strong but exceptional (as it was until just recently), there has usually been even more upside to follow.
Will Rates Kill The Low Vol Mania?
While there are many parallels between recent action and that of 1999-2000, stock market leadership is not one of them.
How About That January?!
The market’s stumble in early February was so abrupt that there was no time for us market numerologists to bask in the limelight of the bullish January Barometer.
Too Many Highs, Too Many Lows??
In the past few years, we’ve shared our concerns that traditional market breadth measures may have become compromised by several developments.
What Yield “Kills” The Secular Bond Bull?
Bond market strategists remain hell bent on identifying the key yield level on 10-year Treasuries at which one can finally declare an end to the 1981-20XX secular bond bull market.
Multiple Contraction—Just A Little Patience?
Things were bigger when you were a kid. Like that enormous sweatshirt your aunt gave you for your birthday or that hand-me-down ten-speed bike with the cross bar taller than your shoulders.
Kicking Off The Year... With A Good Year
During the first four trading days of 2018, the S&P 500 managed to match its 93-year average annual real price gain of +2.6%.
“Don’t Just Do Something, Stand There!”
Inaction has been a richly rewarded trait throughout the current bull market, and especially in 2017.
Strength Begets Strength
If stock market breadth and leadership look nothing like they typically do at cyclical peaks, neither does momentum.
Estimating The Upside?
The remarkable stock market breadth and momentum chronicled in these pages doesn’t come without a price.
Pressure Points?
The first few trading days of the new year have been a seamless extension of 2017—a low-volatility, “measured” market melt-up.
A Long-Term Take On Sentiment
We impatiently published this study two months ago instead of properly waiting for full-year numbers.
Keep An Eye On “Relative” Inflation
While our Group Selection (GS) framework hasn’t yet warmed up to commodity-oriented industries, our macro work suggests perhaps it should.
Asset Allocation: Buy Strength Or Weakness?
We are contrarians at heart, but learned quickly that successful contrarian investing is far more complicated than simply buying assets that are down the most in price.
Bridesmaid Strategy: Track Record
Last year’s Bridesmaid gain of +21.8% matched the benchmark (obviously, since it was entirely invested in the benchmark).
Bridesmaid Strategy: Risk & Return
The concept of risk is hardly at the forefront of the investor psyche after the second-least volatile year in stock market history.
Bridesmaid Strategy: Picking The Year’s Best Asset
Here’s another way to look at the persistence of momentum across asset classes for the last 45 years.
Bridesmaid Strategy: For Equity Managers
Our analysis of the Bridesmaid effect originated more than a decade ago, with an initial focus on equity sectors rather than asset classes.
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