Inside The Stock Market ...trends, cross-currents, and outlook
Worth Noting
How strong is the underlying market? An update on investor psychology and a look at the DJIA psychological barriers. The Leuthold Group’s February Polling the Pros results.
Worth Noting
Three steps and stumble, four steps and fall down?
Sorry, Equity Stance Is Still Cautious
The market’s tone improved significantly in very late January and got even better with the impressive bond motivated upside explosion on Friday February 3.
View From The North Country
Leuthold may have another favorite economist. Paul Krugman at Stanford was recently recognized as the best American economist under the age of forty.
Gold Stocks: Is Our "Tactical Case" Falling Apart?
Back in the December issue, this publication laid out a tactical case for buying gold stocks.
Fearless Forecasts...1995
Each February, this publication, with help from our readers, constructs a series of "Fearless Forecasts".
Bye Bye Bounce
As previously noted, we are deactivating the 1994-1995 “Playing The Bounce” strategy, temporarily moving the better performing stocks to the “Holding Tank”.
Supply/Demand Considerations
The new supply of equities continues to subside. New offerings and secondaries are now far below fall 1993 peak levels.
On Proving Anything With Statistics
I'm sure many readers have seen the following chart in financial publications, and I see a few of you have reprinted it in your client communications.
Worth Noting
Ned David Research examined stock market behavior after the capital gains tax reductions in October 1978 and August 1981.
Examining The Gold Stock Seasonal Play
In last month’s “In Focus” section, “The Tactical Case For Gold Stocks”, we outlined our rationale for adding to our “North American Golds” sector.
Supply/Demand Considerations
The new supply of equities is still somewhat high, but coming down.
View From The North Country
It is thermal pollution time. Read Leuthold’s 1995 forecasts for the stock and bond markets, earnings, interest rates, the economy, inflation, gold, the deficit, the dollar...and the Super Bowl.
1994 Dreams And Nightmares-A Look At What Might Have Been
Among institutional favorite type stocks, the Dream Individual Stock Portfolio was up 23.6%, while the Nightmare Portfolio was down 20.7%
View From the North Country
The Economic Surprise And Inflation, The Feds Overheating Economy And Inflation Fears Are Justified and “Contract With America”: The Danger Is Big Tax Cuts But Minimal Spending Cuts
Major Trend Index Negative
Bond market decline may be in find stages, but stock market can stilll fall 20%- 25%, even if bonds stabilize in coming months.
Stock Market Sentiment
Public investment sentiment, as reflected by equity mutual fund cash flows, is becoming considerably more cautious.
Supply/Demand Considerations
Positive net cash flows into U.S. focus mutual funds are no longer overwhelming new equity offerings. But no investor panic yet.
Playing the Bounce Update
The traditional "Bounce" accumulation season is here but so far we haven't played the game. We may play the "Bounce" in December, but only if stocks sell-off sharply, or perhaps the last week of the month.
Playing the Bounce Update
Last year’s bounce was pretty feeble and we have reservations about this year as well...we will not be playing the “Bounce” yet, maybe later this year.
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