Inside The Stock Market ...trends, cross-currents, and outlook

New equity supply reached record levels in 1993, but in January the flow of new equity offerings dried up. Mutual fund flows not as strong as in January, but pretty close. International flow still strong.

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Whenever we have a significant number of investment professionals gathered together, we ask their stock market opinion via ballot, subsequently reporting the results in this publication.

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As we maintain our "tactically bullish" attitude toward equities, we continue to search for further signs that this market is not as overvalued as it appears.

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Major Trend Index drops back to "neutral" territory. Don't jump the gun and assume the Index will fall to "negative".

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February was a tough month for the stock market. Stock Market performance during various GDP and earnings growth environments and what we currently view as the most likely scenarios for 1994.

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Corporate downsizing related write-off’s, combined with significant accounting write-offs have thrown a monkey wrench into many earnings models, necessitating adjustment for recurring/non-recurring items. ROE/book value models have been rendered virtually useless. Model revisions are needed.

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A reader's case against higher gasoline taxes, followed by my case for consumption taxes and a membership pitch for The Concord Coalition. Did you watch the 56 commercial spots during the Super Bowl? Do you recall what these advertising works of art were selling?

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Major Trend Index moved now comfortably back in positive territory. 96 point decline February 4th is probably setting up a good tactical buying opportunity.

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Don't expect to see net mutual fund redemptions yet. Public still expected to buy on weakness.

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The stock market often underperforms when the economy is strong and earnings are surging. It performs best when real GDP is negative and earnings are declining.

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1994 Predictions: Stock market ultimately down, interest rates up, economy quite strong, inflation ticks up, budget deficit down, the dollar mixed, and an AFL team will win the Super Bowl.

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1993 was another dull volatility year for S&P 500, with record low 9.8% volatility. DJIA higher at 17%, but both far below typical volatility of 27%-29%.

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In 1993, it surprisingly paid off to stick with last year's big winners and avoid 1992's big losers.

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The U.S. stock market environment seems to be pretty much a continuation of the 1993 frolics, big new supply and continued institutional buying as professionals invest new cash flow from individual investors who don't know that Wall Street can be a two way street.

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It has been an incredible year for the fund industry, with unprecedented cash flows into all types of mutual funds.

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It appears that U.S. focus equity mutual funds suffered a mild case of net redemptions during the last half of November, but the public was back on the "buy side" by the end of the month.

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What Has Been The Best Inflationary Environment For Stock Market Performance?...How Have Stocks Done In Deflationary Years?...121 Years Of History Examined...Also Looks At P/E Ratios In Different Inflationary Environments

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What About China?...The 7% Solution...Plan Sponsor's Future Investment Earnings Assumptions Are Too High...Some Facts About Gold

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Yes, there are more negative points than positive points, but the margin is not enough to be considered a sell signal. Don’t jump the gun.

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What a difference a city makes (or a month, or 150 miles). Boston is much more positive about the stock market than New York according to last's month poll. Over a 1 year time horizon, we went from 6% "Bullish'' in New York to 33% "Bullish" in Boston.

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