Inside The Stock Market ...trends, cross-currents, and outlook

Contrary to what others may conclude, current long term investor optimism is high (this may not be good).

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Economic growth and stock market performance don’t go hand in hand - the stock market looks ahead. Don’t be surprised by more wage irrflation. The AdvantHedge short selling program is updated and explained because readers have expressed a growing interest (maybe it’s the market).

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Bond market decline may be in final stages, but stock market can still fall 25%, even if bonds stabilize in coming months.

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Last year’s bounce was pretty feeble and we have reservations about this year as well...we will not be playing the “Bounce” yet, maybe later this year.

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New equity offerings now about matching net inflows into U.S. focus equity mutual funds. Still no evidence of net redemptions for U.S. focus equity funds.

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Major Trend Index deteriorated by 591 points in September, and remains quite decisively in negative territory. We continue to approach equity investing with a great deal of caution, operating in a bear market mode.

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During August, net inflows into U.S. focus equity mutual funds totaled $10 billion, triple August’s equity offering’s. This has changed in September, with expanded underwritings, but a reduced flow into equity mutual funds. An imbalance could be developing.

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NY pros expect a trading range market over the next three months (no surprise). On a one year horizon, 53% of those polled were bullish to some degree (this was a surprise).

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It’s that time of year again. The traditional “Bounce” accumulation season is rapidly approaching.

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The S&P 500 declined 2.7% for the month of September (yet still managed a nice 4.1% gain for the third quarter). The technology related themes provided the most consistent leadership during the quarter.

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A new “sell” signal from the Lowry work on September 21, was a significant factor in the September deterioration in the Major Trend Index.

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Treasury zero bonds are becoming increasingly attractive for retirement accounts and other investors who want to know with absolute certainty how much they are going to get and when they will get it. Also, preliminary Leuthold Group economic and market projections for 1995.

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S&P 500 normalized PE and yield in top (worst) decile of 1926 to date data history. From these valuation levels 12 month total returns average a big fat zero.

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New equity supply contracts sharply in August as Wall Street goes to the beach. Equity fund buyers continue to pour the money in, so demand greater than new supply in August.

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The strong second quarter called for an upward revision in our 1994 earnings estimates. Revised book value calculations for the DJIA and S&P indices were also calculated in August. These proved to be significantly lower than our estimates. Thus, some necessary revisions in our valuation Benchmark work is warranted.

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Cash isn't trash, not in 1993 and not today. The real value of cash is its opportunity value, not its yield. Are you an AARP member? "Seeds of Generational Warfare” points out many of the reasons for the growing demographic conflict, young versus old.

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It still looks like a bear market to us or, at minimum, an old bull market that is topping out.

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1994 market volatility no greater than 1992 or 1993. Annual volatility for DJIA and S&P 500 remains at all time low levels. What is going on? An attempt is made to explain.

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Cash still flowing into equity mutual funds, but net cash flows contracted some in June. New equity supply also shrinks some.

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Our associates at Weeden & Co. have made the big switch, moving their headquarters and trading center from New York City to Greenwich.

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