Inside The Stock Market ...trends, cross-currents, and outlook
Mutual Fund Cash Flow Focus
While the aggregate flow to mutual funds continues to be a net inflow, it is down substantially from year ago levels and some types of funds have been seeing net outflows.
Worth Noting
How strong is the underlying market? An update on investor psychology and a look at the DJIA psychological barriers. The Leuthold Group’s February Polling the Pros results.
Earnings Momentum: How Much Better Can It Get?
Earnings momentum may be peaking. The economy should slow by mid-1995, but analysts may not be factoring this into estimates. Also, year over year comparisons will be tougher as 1994's big earnings numbers get factored in.
View from the North Country
The incentive system from hell: Adjusted for inflation, we now spend nine times as much on welfare as when the War on Poverty began in 1965. Also, an interesting study by Collins Associates: Past performance is not a reliable prediction of future performance and, in fact, is a poor predictor of future results.
Stock Market Hits New Highs, But Major Trend Is Still Negative
Greenspan's comments about the possibility of lower short term rates and orchestrating a soft landing ignited the bond market and stocks followed suit, with several market indices hitting new highs.
Supply/Demand Considerations
Equity offerings have picked up somewhat, but so has the flow into mutual funds. Supply/Demand still seems in reasonable balance.
Supply/Demand Considerations
The new supply of equities continues to subside. New offerings and secondaries are now far below fall 1993 peak levels.
Worth Noting
Three steps and stumble, four steps and fall down?
Sorry, Equity Stance Is Still Cautious
The market’s tone improved significantly in very late January and got even better with the impressive bond motivated upside explosion on Friday February 3.
View From The North Country
Leuthold may have another favorite economist. Paul Krugman at Stanford was recently recognized as the best American economist under the age of forty.
Gold Stocks: Is Our "Tactical Case" Falling Apart?
Back in the December issue, this publication laid out a tactical case for buying gold stocks.
Fearless Forecasts...1995
Each February, this publication, with help from our readers, constructs a series of "Fearless Forecasts".
Bye Bye Bounce
As previously noted, we are deactivating the 1994-1995 “Playing The Bounce” strategy, temporarily moving the better performing stocks to the “Holding Tank”.
1994 Dreams And Nightmares-A Look At What Might Have Been
Among institutional favorite type stocks, the Dream Individual Stock Portfolio was up 23.6%, while the Nightmare Portfolio was down 20.7%
On Proving Anything With Statistics
I'm sure many readers have seen the following chart in financial publications, and I see a few of you have reprinted it in your client communications.
Worth Noting
Ned David Research examined stock market behavior after the capital gains tax reductions in October 1978 and August 1981.
Examining The Gold Stock Seasonal Play
In last month’s “In Focus” section, “The Tactical Case For Gold Stocks”, we outlined our rationale for adding to our “North American Golds” sector.
Supply/Demand Considerations
The new supply of equities is still somewhat high, but coming down.
View From The North Country
It is thermal pollution time. Read Leuthold’s 1995 forecasts for the stock and bond markets, earnings, interest rates, the economy, inflation, gold, the deficit, the dollar...and the Super Bowl.
Playing the Bounce Update
The traditional "Bounce" accumulation season is here but so far we haven't played the game. We may play the "Bounce" in December, but only if stocks sell-off sharply, or perhaps the last week of the month.
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