Inside The Stock Market ...trends, cross-currents, and outlook
Major Stock Market Positives and Negatives
A review of the major stock market positives and negatives as Steve currently views them. There are now six major positives and four major negatives.
Fearless Forecasts…1996
Frivolous flights of foolishness and fantasy. Readers should not confuse these forecasts with the more traditional economic and market predictions appearing the January issue.
It’s A Big Cap Market
No January effect this year. It was a large cap show, with the DJIA (+5.4%) outperforming 85%-90% of stock groups and sectors for the month and the S&P trouncing about 70%.
Playing the Bounce Update: UGH!
This was the worst year ever for this strategy. In the previous two years, results did not live up to historical expectations. But this year, results were terrible.
Major Stock Market Positives and Negatives
During the month of January, two major stock market positive factors became more positive, three remained about the same, and one became less positive. Among the four negative factors, all four became more negative.
Leuthold Major Trend Index: Revisions Are Overdue
Major Trend Index modification will be made this week...weights of two mutual fund inflow components will be doubled due to their significance.
So Far, a Not So Happy New Year
What we will do if the Major Trend Index turns positive (it moved to neutral)?
Playing the Bounce Update
Boosted equity exposure in Conventional and Unconventional Portfolios to “Play the Bounce” — but not much bounce yet.
View from the North Country
Thermal pollution time…Steve Leuthold’s 1996 views (and 1995 reviews) on stocks, interest rates, economy, dollar, deficit, earnings, alternative investment areas and, yes, the Super Bowl.
View from the North Country
Public, NOT professional sentiment may be all that really matters in today's stock market environment. The dark side of 401(k)s...Can unsophisticated investors really be expected to prudently allocate assets, maintain funding disciplines, and resist the temptation to borrow against their plans?
Power in November
It was all there in November for the bulls, better action by secondary stocks, impressive breadth, and a strong bond market.
A New Era—Temporarily
The U.S. stock market has entered a new valuation era. The key question now is how long it will endure. Readers still heavily committed to stocks should be extremely wary. This won’t go on forever.
Just How Good Will It Get?
Earnings and profit margins have soared since 1992. Operating earnings for the S&P Industrials are estimated at $40 here in 1995, and this estimate may prove to be conservative.
Not For New Era Types
How much have dividends mattered in terms of historical stock market total returns, 1920 to date?
If We Make It Through November…..
Weighing In: Updating positives and negatives for stocks...adding earnings momentum as a positive.
View from the North Country
The stock market: What IS different this time? The public's appetite for equity investing continues to top Wall Street’s ability to manufacture supply.
Worth Noting
Steve's thoughts on borrowing to buy mutual funds, indexing and an eerie post-Halloween graphic.
The Underowned and Overowned
Each quarter, Barron’s publishes an industry and sector breakdown of institutional holdings, as tabulated by Indata. This is the first time we have published this work, but we have been using it as a factor in our Sector Selection Scores.
Playing the Bounce
We are now laying some preliminary plans to “Play the Bounce”, probably initiating positions sometime after mid-December. A look at the first cut of potential buy candidates as compiled by Jim Floyd.
The Public’s Record: Buy High, Sell Low
Fear has been long term investors’ greatest enemy, primarily because it keeps them from being long term investors.
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