Inside The Stock Market ...trends, cross-currents, and outlook
Early 1997: The Stock Market Looks Higher
December's stock market was a mixed up affair, but this is not unusual for December.
Equity Fund Flows...Short Term
Longer term studies of mutual fund inflows, cash reserves, etc., can be found in the “Supply/Demand” section of this publication.
Equity Fund Flows…Short Term
For the month of November, net inflows into U.S. focus funds are estimated at $14.4 billion, up 26% from $11.4 billion in October and above the $13.1 billion of November 1995.
The Lagging Small Caps
Weighted S&P 500 outperforming unweighted counterpart. Typical NASDAQ stock up 6% year to date, compared to +23% for Index (10 biggest NASDAQ stocks up average of 45%).
Playing the Bounce Update
Fresh tax bounce list. Slim pickings, only 28 qualifiers. Most distressed equities have already bounced too far off recent lows per our discipline (especially the technology issues).
View from the North Country
Excerpts from Leo Melamed’s new book. Former Chairman of the "Merc” (home of S&P futures), gives insider view of 1987 stock market crash. Also, my first annual letter to mutual fund shareholders is reprinted here. You want to know what I really think about the stock market?...Here it is.
In “Never Never Land”
It’s “Never Never Land”...stock market now above all past valuation extremes. Ultimately, a big bear market is out there, but shorter term it may go higher.
Today’s Mutual Fund Investor Attitudes
Lou Harris recent poll indicates mutual fund investors’ expectations are unrealistically high and many would sell if market declines.
Looking Behind the “Household” Numbers
Are U.S. “Households” net equity sellers? We don’t think so!
October Mutual Fund Flows
U.S. mutual fund flow less bullish in October (may be seasonal).
The Stock Market and the Economy: Lead and Lag Relationships
In past issues, we have postulated that the next major stock market decline would not precede an economic downturn as it typically has in the past. Rather, the relationship would be coincidental, with the stock market and the economy turning down at about the same time.
Playing the Bounce Update
Running a fresh “Playing the Bounce” screen at month end netted quite a handful of new names, and a few deletions from our previous screen featured in the October Interim Memo.
View from the North Country
Scarce on Wall Street: “SELL” recommendations. Why? Also, The Great American Weight Gain: How can the typical American really consume so much in a single year?
Year-End Cross Currents Start Early
While September was a surprisingly strong month, October was just confusing. Year-end cross currents seem to have started early this year. Major Trend Index now just barely in neutral territory with a ratio of 0.95.
View from the North Country
California’s Proposition 211: a blatant, self-serving enrichment scheme that has negative implications for all of us. Good news for stocks and bonds: likely that the Republicans will not lose the House, and will also retain control of the Senate.
A September Surprise (To Me)
September a surprisingly strong month, with 4%-5% gains for most market indices. Significant MTI improvement, but still a ways from Neutral.
September Mutual Fund Flows
Supply/Demand bullish in September. Mutual fund net inflows increase to an estimated $11 billion in September.
Playing the Bounce Update
May be another sub-par “Playing the Bounce” year. Most equities have already bounced off their lows, so this year's crop of busted stocks looks pretty lean and unusually risky.
August: Few Surprises
The stock market performed pretty much as expected in August, although experiencing a somewhat unusual fade at month end. Major Trend remains negative. Some improvement but still a long way from Neutral.
Equity Fund Flows…Short Term
Mutual fund net inflows increase to an estimated $14 billion in August.
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