Inside The Stock Market ...trends, cross-currents, and outlook

Revised January 1997 U.S. equity mutual fund flows of $23.4 billion, setting an all-time record. February’s estimate of $20 billion brings YTD U.S. focus fund flows to $43 billion, well ahead of last year’s record pace.

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Jim Floyd’s breakdown of eleven broad sectors within the S&P 500. The S&P 500 experienced 24 component stock changes during 1996. New component additions were not balanced within the sectors by the stock deletions.

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This year we did not employ this late 1996-early 1997 tactical trading strategy. Nevertheless, some of our readers did employ the strategy, so we continue to monitor performance.

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Reasonable valuations(?), risk reductions and the wealth effect.

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It’s “Never Never Land”...stock market now above all past valuation extremes. Ultimately, a big bear market is out there, but shorter term the market may go higher.

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This is Jim Floyd's sector breakdown of eleven broad sectors within the S&P 500. 

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Each February, this publication, sometimes with help from our readers, constructs a series of “Fearless Forecasts”.

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Over the last three years, capitalization weighted index funds (mostly S&P modeled) have been outperforming about 90% of the actively managed equity mutual funds.

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85% of mutal fund holders expect the next ten years of stock market performance to match or exceed the last ten years.

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Longer term studies of mutual fund inflows, cash reserves, etc., can be found in the "Supply/Demand" section of this publication. 

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The passive indexers continue to hold the hot hand.

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This year we did not employ this late 1996-early 1997 tactical trading strategy.

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December's stock market was a mixed up affair, but this is not unusual for December.

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Longer term studies of mutual fund inflows, cash reserves, etc., can be found in the “Supply/Demand” section of this publication.

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Thermal pollution time...Steve Leuthold offers his 1997 views and 1996 reviews on U.S. stock market, interest rates, economy, etc.

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This publication has chosen not to employ this late 1996-early 1997 tactical trading strategy.

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The NASDAQ Composite Index has become a very poor measure of smaller, more aggressive stocks. 

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Weighted S&P 500 outperforming unweighted counterpart. Typical NASDAQ stock up 6% year to date, compared to +23% for Index (10 biggest NASDAQ stocks up average of 45%).

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Fresh tax bounce list. Slim pickings, only 28 qualifiers. Most distressed equities have already bounced too far off recent lows per our discipline (especially the technology issues).

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Excerpts from Leo Melamed’s new book. Former Chairman of the "Merc” (home of S&P futures), gives insider view of 1987 stock market crash. Also, my first annual letter to mutual fund shareholders is reprinted here. You want to know what I really think about the stock market?...Here it is.

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