Inside The Stock Market ...trends, cross-currents, and outlook

73 high volatility days YTD (31.6%). Highest volatility year since 1987 and matching 1982.

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New Era investment professionals, crowding onto the money train and a different way to look at the economic impact of bear markets.

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After wavering in neutral several weeks, Major Trend Index turned negative November 24...Go to sidelines. Market rallied strongly in November but fund investors uncharacteristically stayed on the sidelines. Is this increased caution or seasonality?

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Employee stock option excesses (continued from last month), different viewpoints on options repricing (also continued from last month) and current updated inflation views.

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The market fell in the week ending 11/5 and inflows dried up. Then came the surprise. The market rallied, but fund investors stayed on the sidelines.

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For those who are looking to reduce their downside risk, we present potential Defensive Equity Sector Ideas, including Electric Utilities, REITs, Phones, Natural Gas and Value stocks.

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Earnings momentum continues to be strong. Small cap earnings are improving significantly, while big cap results remain robust.

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Obviously 1997 to date has been a high volatility year. This degree of day to day volatility was last recorded in 1987.

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The big volatility week at the end of October didn’t seem to cause much panic among fund buyers (maybe it was good they couldn’t get through on Monday). We are guessing the sustained strong net inflows will bounce back strongly.

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Increasingly, stock and bond markets moving in opposite directions. There may be some reasons why this is happening now.

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Main Street math, fund managers age and experience and average mutual fund shareholder profits.

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More and more employees get stock options these days, but for shareholders this can be a loser’s game. Comments on autumn in Vermont and the “Masochist’s Ball” (Contrary Opinion Forum).

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Major Trend Index downshifts to neutral. Big loss in Technical measures due to late October sell off. We are in a critical market period...Have Mr. And Ms. Main-Street become more skittish after experiencing a dose of downside risk?

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Index fund net inflows remained low in September at about $1.1 billion (estimated). This is almost flat compared to the $1.2 billion in August.

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After two weeks of net outflows in August, the public returned to the mutual fund trough in September.

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Small caps continued to outperform in September’s strong market. Improving small cap earnings and sales momentum. Improving sponsorship (so far) from aggressive and emerging net fund inflows.

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Octophobia…but October 1997 is not at all like October 1987. In 1997, the Advance/Decline line has continued “in gear” with the S&P 500, whereas in 1987, the A/D line peaked out five months before August 1987’s peak.

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Stock market still considered lead economic indicator? Maybe not, considering the last three years, the stock market has been driven by Main Street. Changing role of portfolio managers: risk management function reduced to minimum if it even exists at all.

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In September, 19% of the trading days qualified as high volatility days.

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Doubtful, at this point. Relative performance “catch up” not conclusive...Abnormal downdraft in large caps a big contributing factor.

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