Inside The Stock Market ...trends, cross-currents, and outlook
August Mutual Fund Flows
Weekly inflows for the month of August were positive in the early part of the month, but quickly turned to net redemptions as the market fell. The data demonstrates that investors continue to buy on strength. They don’t buy the dips!
Day To Day Stock Market Volatility
July started with a bang, but wound up a dud.
How Long Can This Go On?
Q4 1991 through Q2 1995, earnings growth and the stock market were in synch... not anymore.
Oversupply of Small Cap Orphans?
More than 500 new companies were added to the Russell 2000 at the mid-year index revision. Those issues deleted from the Russell indices become “orphans”.
July Mutual Fund Flows
According to the latest ICI report, fund managers investing in U.S equities were hoarding cash during the month of June. Percentage of assets rises to 4.1%, but still near all-time lows.
View From the North Country
Will the Asian Recession go global? “Gridlock is good", per a Jim Bianco study. Lottery mania, its history in the U.S., and potential effects on society. Also, the past suppression of women’s humor and “Northworst Airlines”.
Insider Block Measures—An Update
Insider big block transactions…still selling like mad.
Big Cap Dominance…More Striking After July Turmoil
The second half of 1998 got off with a thud for most managers. It is becoming increasingly evident that we are in a two tiered market—the only positive relative performance is from the largest of the big cap “growth” stocks.
Is 1998 Like 1987?
Comparing 1987 versus 1997 and 1998 Advance/Decline lines: 1987’s actually didn’t look nearly as bad as today’s.
Major Trend Back to Negative
Major Trend back to Negative...Both Asset Allocation Portfolios shifted to their most defensive posture ever. Steve's judgements and opinions on major stock market positives and negatives.
A Different Spin on Liquidity
Cash, as a percent of the NYSE market value, has never been lower.
Small Caps Relatively Cheap, But….
Small caps cheap relative to big caps, but neither is cheap on absolute basis...Unweighted to weighted P/E comparison at record discount.
Should We Believe It This Time?
On June 22, clients received an Interim Memo noting that our composite Major Trend Index had slipped to Negative status. The subsequent calculation lost a few more points and remains marginally negative.
The Demise of the Earnings Momentum Investor
The demise of the earnings momentum investor: continuing success of this numbers game is being increasingly threatened by earnings pre-announcements.
Insider Block Measures—An Update
Update on insider big block transactions: latest weekly reading indicates net selling is still near the recent 16 year high, hit May 27.
June Mutual Fund Flows
Estimated net inflows into U.S. equity funds increased significantly in June compared to May and nearly doubled year ago flows.
View From the North Country
Asia Investing: One of the greatest investment opportunities of a lifetime. Don’t be near-sighted, being “early” can be a virtue.
The Asian Grand Opportunity...Buy On Weakness
Small addition to Emerging Country Funds in both portfolios with purchase of Greater China Fund.
Was Q2 a Tough One For You?
S&P 500 turned in a +3.3% return for Q2 and not many managers matched it. Only a mere 20% of the Leuthold sectors tracked outperformed it.
Day To Day Stock Market Volatility
Volatility increased significantly in June compared to May: 32% of the trading days had moves of 1% or more.
Subscribe to Advisor Newsletter