Inside The Stock Market ...trends, cross-currents, and outlook

Depending on what the December 15th list looks like and providing that the overall market is not soaring we might participate, anticipating a January-February bounce.

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Volatility diminished in November after a very volatile month of October.

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The public is back as evidenced by strong mutual fund cash inflows. Seasonally strong Q1 mutual fund inflows should push the DJIA above 10,000. Traditional “January Effect” may be absent again in 1999, as it has previous four years.

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After noting last month’s declines in public confidence measures we wrote that, in order to sustain a rising stock market, these measures needed to improve in the next month. All of the confidence measures did improve.

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Currency speculators very destructive to global economies. Jesse “The Body” Ventura's victory was not a whim. How much does it cost to get your “Fanny in the Seat?” A look at the financials of baseball.

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October proved to be the most volatile month thus far in 1998.

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The evils of October vanished after the first six trading days. Small can stocks cheap relative to large caps but not cheap relative to their own history.

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Unless earnings begin to show strong signs of growth (not evident at present), the stock market is clearly still ahead of itself (even after the decline).

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Major Trend Index improved to Neutral but not offering any guidance as to whether this is a bear market rally or a bull market.

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Numerous measures experienced sharp drops corresponding closely to the stock market sell off. Without a bounce in the next two months, the outlook for the economy and the stock market may look quite bleak.

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Recent “hedge” fund trauma marks the end of hedge fund mania. The risk in quantitative models: Never bet the entire farm on any statistical model when the unpredictability of the human factor is involved.

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Public confidence measures have taken some sharp declines in recent weeks but mutual fund investors have cautiously returned as net buyers. Meanwhile the mountain of cash in U.S. focus equity mutual funds has climbed to $125 billion.

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On balance, latest week’s big block sells still outnumber the unusually high number of big block buys, but the 10 week average is approaching net buying territory (historically an excellent time to buy stocks).

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September the best month of a terrible quarter. October could present some opportunities.. This could be an exceptional bounce year.  Major Trend remains Negative. Recommended strategy: Maintain maximum allowable defensive equity.

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Based on our estimates of mutual fund inflows at various market levels, it looks like more fund owners are now under water. About $116 billion was invested in the market above current levels. Nervous but not panicked mutual fund investors.

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On balance, latest week’s big block sells still outnumber the (record high) big block buys, but falling average providing some evidence of improving sentiment of corporate insiders.

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There is a whole lot of volatility in the market currently, more than investors have come to expect...42% of Q3 days were high volatility.

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The downside of leverage...lesson better off learned early in one's career, rather than later. Expanding our emerging Asia Pacific coverage to include ADRs. Observations from a Russian visit.

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Unless earnings begin to show strong signs of growth (not evident at present), the stock market is clearly still ahead of itself (even after the August decline).

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Steve’s personal judgements and opinions incorporating observations, experience and gut feelings, going beyond the quantitative aspects of the Major Trend Index disciplines.

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