Inside The Stock Market ...trends, cross-currents, and outlook
View From The North Country
Inflation is on the rise…normal business cycle inflation, not the rebirth of new secular inflation. Also, the stampede of the lambs…the powerbase for the stock market has moved from Wall Street to Main Street.
September…A New Investment Season Begins
September-October, two months to be wary of.
Volatility Update…Took A Break In July
With a lack of leadership and little direction in this market during July, the percent of volatile trading days was well below the YTD figure.
View From The North Country
The trauma of losing Big. Large Investment losses can have a dramatic psychological impact on some individuals. Defined contributions plans…A stock market time bomb?
Insider Block Measures...Corporate Insiders Net Selling Slowing
The latest reading is now below historical selling extremes.
It's August...Stay In Touch
What happened to the markets in July?..…No obvious major factor for decline. The daily stock market chart of July 1999 is close to a carbon copy of July 1998. Will history repeat itself in August? Let’s hope not.
The Growth In NYSE Stock Listings
Since 1990, the number of listed stocks on the NYSE has increased by almost 90%. This surge in the number of listings can have a significant impact on a great many tools of the technician’s trade.
Time To Shift Into Mid Caps?
Advise clients mandated to be fully invested to move assets away from Large Cap institutional favorites and into Mid/Small cap names.
July Mutual Fund Flows
U. S. focus equity fund inflows are estimated at $12 billion in July, down some from June’s $14.4 billion, and also down from last July’s $15.5 billion.
The Big Shrink…Cash Mergers Slowing In July, But YTD At An All-Time Record
Through July, there has been $146 billion of cash acquisitions. This is an all-time record, over 35% more than the previous annual record of $108 billion in 1998.
The Big Shrink
Cash acquisitions are shrinking U.S. equity base at a faster pace than ever before…$135 billion in the first half of 1999, a record so far, with no signs of a slowdown.
Insider Block Measures...Corporate Insiders Bearish On Stock Market
The latest reading has broken back above this extreme net selling line.
Volatility Update...Reaching Extreme Levels
Volatility in 1999 remains high after eight of 22 trading days in June (36%) ended with up or down moves of 1% or greater in the S&P 500.
View From The North Country
Despite proclamation of a “neutral” bias toward future interest rate shifts, expect the Fed to raise short rates at least 25 basis points more.
Active Managers Beat Index Funds!
Just as many plan sponsors throw in the towel, active managers pull a great quarter out of their collective hat. What's in store for the second half of 1999?
July Mutual Fund Flows
Early on, it appeared that June was destined to be one of the less memorable months in terms of U.S. equity fund inflows. But big net inflows came in during the final five days of the month, making June much more memorable to fund flow watchers.
The Mixed Month Of May
The S&P 500 eased 2.5% in May, while measures of smaller cap stocks edged up 1% to 2%. Major Trend Index has shifted to negative status. Dow Jones 40,000?
May Mutual Fund Flows
Market volatility was the likely culprit for equity fund disenchantment in May, as net inflows into U.S. focus equity funds for the month were less than half of April’s record breaking $26.1 billion. Main Street Confidence: The critical market factor…..what are some potential confidence destroyers?
Volatility Update...Reaching Extreme Levels
Volatility is on the rise again.
The Big Shrink
1999 YTD cash acquisition factor nearly $100 billion, far exceeding YTD totals for the last four years.
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