Inside The Stock Market ...trends, cross-currents, and outlook

If small caps can move back above the October 1999 level in the coming months, this would certainly be encouraging for small cap fans and may even signal a change in the trend to confirm that leadership is indeed moving to the small cap arena.

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While the 1930s were more severely volatile for the S&P, 1999 ranks second only to the 1974 record (45.1%) in the post WWII era.

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Small cap bounce stocks were winners, November—December performance +25.6%.

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Once again, the stock market has soared to another year of strong performance. Returns of 20%-30% are becoming the norm.

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One would not expect to generate better than average returns by chasing last year’s big winners. But this simplistic approach did produce better than average results in 1999, as it usually has over the last eleven years.

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Thermal pollution time again: Steve’s 2000 predictions for the economy and his market outlook, including a look back at last year’s forecasts.

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Estimated totals for 1999 cash flows for the major fund categories and a comparison to previous years to illustrate trends.

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Hot market in December with many tech groups up 20%+ and one-fourth of Leuthold’s groups posting double digit gains...as Y2K fears diminished, the market  momentum built.

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In 1999, cash acquisitions of public companies reduced the U.S. equity base at a far greater magnitude than ever before.

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Small cap performance actually nosed out Big Cap +19.6 for Russell 2000 and +19.5% for S&P 500 (price only). Who would have believed it?

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Check the new standardized industry groups in Leuthold’s Groups…..S&P will be phasing in the new groups in Q1 2000.

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U. S. focus equity fund inflows are estimated to have risen to $20 billion in November. Also, we highlight a few of the more significant seasonal effects and point out things to look out for in the coming weeks.

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Through November, the $199 billion of cash acquisitions have outpaced the record $144 billion YTD offerings, producing a net equity shrink of $55 billion.

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“Restrictive Guidelines And Pressure To Outperform”, an excellent article by Walter Cabot appearing in the July/August 1998 Financial Analysts Journal.

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Aggregate selling slightly below historical extremes.

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Leuthold broad tech sector up 17% in November! But, only three of our other nine broad sectors managed decent gains for the month. Watch January, Fed could tighten in a hurry and raise rates.

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With just one more month of trading until the new millennium, stock market volatility stands at its highest level since 1987.

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Might be time to “Play The Bounce” again.

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Through October, there have been $188 billion of cash acquisitions. This is an all-time record.

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The Internet threatens retail profitability by creating severe pricing pressure. For consumers the Internet has obvious benefits, but the downside is less obvious.

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