Inside The Stock Market ...trends, cross-currents, and outlook
How Long To Catch Up?
Bear markets and the time to catch up.
In The Rear View Mirror
Year 2000 is half over...Leuthold Paid To Play equity portfolio concentrated in Energy and Health Care up 7% in June, +33% YTD. Also, today’s huge valuation dichotomy.
Capitalization Tier Meausres
The Leuthold Group has set out to create a more realistic assessment of Big, Mid, Small, and Micro cap performance.
Insider Block Measures...Big “Bailout” Continues
Latest 10-week reading has risen again to another all time high.
View From The North Country
Many consultants and their clients have tightened the style boxes and narrowed the definitions to such a degree that it hamstrings the manager….and it’s detrimental to the client’s long term results.
Capitalization Tier Meausres
The Leuthold Group has set about to create a more realistic assessment of Big, Mid, Small, and Micro cap performance.
No Merry Month Of May
Kate Welling shares her insight on the recent market action. Also, the 2000 NASDAQ Market...The magnitude and short duration of both the Spring decline and the last few days’ 20%+ rally, are a direct reflection of the sad state of liquidity in the NASDAQ market.
Volatility Update…Incredible Volatility In 2000!
This is the most volatile market year for the S&P 500 since 1938. Now well beyond the 45.1% level recorded in 1974.
May Mutual Fund Flows: Fund Investors Hangin’ In
Only one week of significant net equity fund redemptions in May. Investors not only buying the rallies but now also buying the declines?
Net New Equity Supply
YTD offerings of $107 billion have been overtaken by $108 billion in YTD cash acquisitions. This produces net equity shrink of $1 billion so far this year.
Volatility Update…Incredible Volatility In 2000!
NASDAQ moved 1% or more every day but one in April!
April Mutual Fund Flows: Buying The Dip…
Surprised by the perseverance of U.S. mutual fund investors. In spite of market turmoil, $25 billion flowed into U.S. focus equity funds…The public did actually buy the dip.
Insider Block Measures...At All Time High Selling Extreme
Big block insider selling through the roof, as 1999 IPOs unlock.
View From The North Country
What has happened to the Stock/Bond Models? Does the CPI now understate inflation? If stock market returns average 20% per year, as some investors expect, young investors need not worry about Social Security…Fat Chance!
Net New Equity Supply
A net increase of $30 billion in new supply this year. Quite a reversal from 1999 where YTD $39 billion of new offerings was almost 50% less than cash acquisitions.
Volatility 2000 Continues
Modifications to Major Trend Index improve reading, but MTI is still very negative.
Capitalization Tier Meausres
The Leuthold Group has set about to create a more realistic assessment of Big, Mid, Small, and Micro cap performance.
Margin Supports Stock Speculators…As A Rope Supports A Hanged Man
Margin debt creates problem for the market.
The Current Market
Year 2000 Q1 is history. Initially technology ruled, but “old economy” stocks revived late in the quarter, although it looked for a while like they might be terminal. But, you want to know what I think will happen now.
Future Stock Market Sector Leadership
We believe Energy and Health Care are now moving into leadership positions.
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