Inside The Stock Market ...trends, cross-currents, and outlook
View From The North Country
Will Wall Street See More “Sells”? Expect some changes, but most important development may be a rise in gutsy, independent institutional research. Also, decimalization: an unanticipated bonanza for NYSE specialists.
S&P 500 And NASDAQ Volatility…..New Year Opens With Continued Extreme Volatility
New year opens with continued high volatility. 62% of the NASDAQ trading days in January moved up or down 1% or more.
Have Increased Equity Exposure
Our Aggressive Stance On Equity Exposure: Fed cuts, money supply expansion, tax cut prospects, fund inflow, and market internals.….Not all worries have gone away, however. This bear market has not followed what can be thought of as a traditional course.
Capitalization Tier Meausres
Continuing to evaluate Leuthold Index methodology.
2001.....An Excellent Bounce Year
Our strategy was to buy ten “quality” Large/Mid Cap names down at least 50% from their 2000 highs. A list of our ten purchases (equally weighted), as well as subsequent realized gains.
January Mutual Fund Flows: Equity Demand Surges In January
January’s $30 billion net inflow the strongest January on record (beating January 2000).
The Big Shrink…Cash Acquisitions Activity Heats Up In January
In 2000, cash acquisitions of public companies reduced the U.S. equity base at a far greater magnitude than ever before. Now it looks as though this trend is continuing this year.
Capitalization Tier Meausres
Continuing to evaluate Leuthold Index methodology.
Large Cap Versus Small Cap: Inside The S&P 500
Poor performance by Large cap technology issues had a very negative impact on S&P 500 cap weighted performers in 2000.
The Big Shrink…Record Level Cash Acquisitions In 2000
In 2000, cash acquisitions of public companies reduced the U.S. equity base at a far greater magnitude than ever before.
2000 Dreams and Nightmares
A look at “what might have been”.
December Mutual Fund Flows: Equity Demand Continues To Cool
Managers have been timid about investing in the market, especially since the end of Q1, with only 56% of net new cash flow actually being invested in stocks.
View From The North Country
Thermal pollution time again: Steve’s New Year predictions for the economy and his market outlook, including a look back at last year’s forecasts.
Insider Block Measures...Smart Money Selling Continues, And Is Likely To Continue
Big block net sells hit a record $70 billion for 2000. This is 84% more than the previous record year (1999’s $38 billion).
2001: A Wild Beginning
Two trading days into 2001, and the first day delivered the second-worst-ever, first day trading loss in the S&P 500 (the worst-ever being the first day of 1932!). Day Two: A surprise, 50 basis point Fed rate cut, brought an upside explosion.
Volatility Update
The current volatility in the NASDAQ is unprecedented over the 30 year life of this index.
Playing The Bounce Update
We decided to Play The Bounce during the final few days of December. Window dressing and tax loss selling had continued, especially in the technology sector, creating buying opportunities.
November Mutual Fund Flows: Equity Demand Cools In A Tumultuous Month
In a month with the S&P 500 down 8% and the NASDAQ down 23%, it is amazing that there weren’t net redemptions for the month.
Insider Block Measures...Market Smarting As Smart Money Selling Continues
The latest 10-week reading remains above historical selling extremes.
Volatility Update
S&P 500 volatility so far in 2000 has been exceptionally high, only seven of the other 100 years have been more volatile. The current volatility in the NASDAQ is unprecedented over the 30 year life of this index.
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