Inside The Stock Market ...trends, cross-currents, and outlook

The latest 10-week reading has risen back above historical selling extremes.

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Leuthold’s current point of view and outlook regarding  the Economy, Interest Rates, Inflation, and Earnings.

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October carries a reputation with investors as the “cruelest  month”, but statistically, September is most likely to be a downer. Paid To Play Portfolio: Now up an unbelievable 57% YTD. Tech Sunset? Professionals seem to be lightening their load in technology and communication commitments, now targeting a market weight.

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· It really is incredible that equity fund inflows have held up so well this year. Also, Supply Factors: Heavy cash acquisition activity is bullish for stocks, since it reduces the overall equity supply available to investors.

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Down significantly In August...New trend or anomaly?

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Currently evaluating Leuthold Index methodology.

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Big block transactions total about $47 billion so far this year, almost twice the YTD levels of 1998 and 1999 when insider selling was at historically high levels. This year’s level of selling is unprecedented.

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Dividends do matter, especially as an important component of total return. Also, a recent study published in the Financial Analyst Journal tries to get at the root of large cap, growth stock dominance in the 1990s.

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Stock Market Sweet Spot between now and election. Fewer impediments with inflation pressures easing and economy showing signs of a slowdown. Also, making a case for Mid Caps and is the Paid To Play performance for real?

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The YTD $194 billion net inflow through the end of August is now 67% more than 1999’s $116 billion net inflow over the same YTD period, and has already matched the annual record (1997’s $194 billion). Supply/Demand: Offerings volume was very heavy during the first half of August, but began to dry up in the second half of the month.

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One thing can be said about the equity fund money flow this year: it just keeps rolling in.

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No year in NASDAQ history even approaches this year’s volatility!

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The Leuthold Group has set out to create a more realistic assessment of Big, Mid, Small, and Micro cap performance.

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What are the economists missing? Dismal performance by practitioners of a dismal science! Jim Bianco, Bianco Research L.L.C., helps shed some light on the subject: “GDP Reality vs. Perception”.

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The Value Tide is coming in (finally). In July, Large Cap, Mid Cap and Small Cap Value all outperformed their “Growth” counterparts by  generous margins.

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NASDAQ Volatility - Unprecedented! First step toward trading in decimals will begin this fall. Barry Small, CEO of Weeden & Co., offers his insights on the impact on liquidity and potential volatility for the U.S. markets.

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In 2000, inflows have come in at a record clip. The YTD $160 billion net inflow through the end of June is now about 74% more than 1999’s net inflow over the same six-month period.

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YTD offerings of $120 billion have been overtaken by $142 billion in YTD cash  acquisitions.

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High levels of selling indicate corporate insiders are cashing in by cashing out of the stock market and this year’s level of selling is unprecedented.

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Per Ray DeVoe, pay increases for the service sector workers are running at a 7%-8% annual rate of increase, compare this to the BLS calculation of +3.5% for this same sector. Steve and Sharon ride the rails through the Scotland highlands.

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