Latest Research

In our never-ending quest for valuation measures, we constructed a histogram which shows the number of S&P 500 units needed to purchase a new home.

Technology sectors leading this advancing market with double-digit returns in November.

Currency speculators very destructive to global economies. Jesse “The Body” Ventura's victory was not a whim. How much does it cost to get your “Fanny in the Seat?” A look at the financials of baseball.

On September 28, SEC Chairman Arthur Levitt announced a new “get tough” policy toward restructuring charges, write-offs and other managed earnings abuses. What follows are rather extensive extracts from Levitt’s speech.

All in all, inflation pressures are expected to remain minimal. Through 1999, the CPI and PPI will likely remain between an environment of mild inflation and mild deflation.

The evils of October vanished after the first six trading days. Small can stocks cheap relative to large caps but not cheap relative to their own history.

Major Trend Index improved to Neutral but not offering any guidance as to whether this is a bear market rally or a bull market.

Numerous measures experienced sharp drops corresponding closely to the stock market sell off. Without a bounce in the next two months, the outlook for the economy and the stock market may look quite bleak.

Public confidence measures have taken some sharp declines in recent weeks but mutual fund investors have cautiously returned as net buyers. Meanwhile the mountain of cash in U.S. focus equity mutual funds has climbed to $125 billion.

On balance, latest week’s big block sells still outnumber the unusually high number of big block buys, but the 10 week average is approaching net buying territory (historically an excellent time to buy stocks).

October proved to be the most volatile month thus far in 1998.

Unless earnings begin to show strong signs of growth (not evident at present), the stock market is clearly still ahead of itself (even after the decline).

Technology-related sectors took lead in October rally. Small caps lagged for the month, but came on strong in last two weeks.

Recent “hedge” fund trauma marks the end of hedge fund mania. The risk in quantitative models: Never bet the entire farm on any statistical model when the unpredictability of the human factor is involved.

Leuthold October 15th Bounce list performance was extraordinary!

At current levels U.S. T-bonds are no longer viewed as attractive. U.S. T-bond potential downside now about matches upside potential. Our 17 year old 5% T-bond target was achieved last month.

The downside of leverage...lesson better off learned early in one's career, rather than later. Expanding our emerging Asia Pacific coverage to include ADRs. Observations from a Russian visit.

Using history as a guide, today’s low inflation environment is no justification for the current P/E.

T-bond achieves Leuthold long term target of 5%: hedge fund turmoil and Asia induced flight to quality has helped drive rates down too far, too fast. When some of the short term distortion subsides, yields could pop back up.

September the best month of a terrible quarter. October could present some opportunities.. This could be an exceptional bounce year.  Major Trend remains Negative. Recommended strategy: Maintain maximum allowable defensive equity.