Latest Research

Institutions' preference for liquid big caps have made it very difficult for most portfolio managers to keep up with the S&P 500 or the NASDAQ year to date.

Bond market getting ahead of itself, fueled by flight to credit quality...But money flows could slow, should Asia outlook improve or Japan act decisively.

Excellent stock picking combined with good sector performance to drive the live Paid to Play Equity Portfolio to a strong 11.8% gain in June. Only four sectors outperformed our live portfolio.

May was malicious for most portfolio managers. Despite just modest declines for the S&P 500 and DJIA, 80% of Leuthold sectors were down more.

Insiders’ Big Block Transactions: latest reading indicating net selling at 16 year high.

  A review of the significant stock market positives and negatives as I currently see them.

Mutual fund investors’ enthusiasm cooled during May’s volatile stock market, leaving monthly total equity fund inflows at the lowest level since March 1997.

Using the broad sector component stocks, Jim Floyd calculates the Leuthold Weighted year over year, quarterly operating earnings gain (or loss) utilizing the companies in each sector.

Only two of the twenty trading days in May closed with moves of 1% or more.

Update on our North American Gold stock index.

An update on our Asia Pacific Market Opportunity Index.

Low inflation environments versus “new era” valuations. Examining low inflation environments only, with our “Upside/Downside” factors, there is still 34%+ downside to median valuation levels (1957 to date).

May was a tough month, with only 18% of the sectors beating the DJIA (-1.8%) and 19% beating the S&P 500 (-1.9%).

Remembering Mister Johnson, the founding spirit of Fidelity. A “Balanced” mutual fund up 8% in a single day? Also, a reader response to last month’s comments on a new NYSE rule and how good were the good old days?

Asian crisis not helping much (yet), putting brakes on strong U.S. economy (except on earnings)...Asia (including Japan) will become heavier “drag” on U.& in next six months...Inflation likely to increase slightly but still viewed as tame.

Late April preliminary real GDP estimate was a strong 4.2% gain, with the lowest inflation adjustment in 34 years. The price index for gross domestic purchases was unchanged from the prior quarter for the first time since 1954.

There are signs of an earnings slowdown especially within the big cap arena...small cap earnings have held up relatively better.

Net inflows into U.S. equity funds for April are estimated to be down slightly from March but still running almost 40% ahead of a year ago.

Stock market volatility, U.S. savings rate, gold stocks, Y2K, the software engineer shortage and stock options.

Looking for a potential double? Take a look at our Asia Pacific market opportunity index. High risk markets, but still down big (adding in May). Risk is tempered by the beating these markets have taken.