Latest Research

Small caps cheap relative to big caps, but neither is cheap on absolute basis...Unweighted to weighted P/E comparison at record discount.

Q4 1991 through Q2 1995, earnings growth and the stock market were in synch... not anymore.

According to the latest ICI report, fund managers investing in U.S equities were hoarding cash during the month of June. Percentage of assets rises to 4.1%, but still near all-time lows.

Insider big block transactions…still selling like mad.

Comparing 1987 versus 1997 and 1998 Advance/Decline lines: 1987’s actually didn’t look nearly as bad as today’s.

Cash, as a percent of the NYSE market value, has never been lower.

July started with a bang, but wound up a dud.

More than 500 new companies were added to the Russell 2000 at the mid-year index revision. Those issues deleted from the Russell indices become “orphans”.

In all, only 10 sectors posted gains during July...including a strong 3.0% gain in Cable.

A fresh Recession Resistant screen uncovered 68 stocks - big cap companies whose earnings have held up well during the past three recessions.

Will the Asian Recession go global? “Gridlock is good", per a Jim Bianco study. Lottery mania, its history in the U.S., and potential effects on society. Also, the past suppression of women’s humor and “Northworst Airlines”.

Bond market still ahead of itself, fueled by flight to credit quality...But money flows could slow, should Asia outlook improve, or Japan act decisively.

Asia Investing: One of the greatest investment opportunities of a lifetime. Don’t be near-sighted, being “early” can be a virtue.

S&P 500 turned in a +3.3% return for Q2 and not many managers matched it. Only a mere 20% of the Leuthold sectors tracked outperformed it.

On June 22, clients received an Interim Memo noting that our composite Major Trend Index had slipped to Negative status. The subsequent calculation lost a few more points and remains marginally negative.

The demise of the earnings momentum investor: continuing success of this numbers game is being in­creasingly threatened by earnings pre-announcements.

Update on insider big block transactions: latest weekly reading indicates net selling is still near the recent 16 year high, hit May 27.

Estimated net inflows into U.S. equity funds increased significantly in June compared to May and nearly doubled year ago flows.

Small addition to Emerging Country Funds in both port­folios with purchase of Greater China Fund.

Volatility increased significantly in June compared to May: 32% of the trading days had moves of 1% or more.