Latest Research

Rising stocks and better economic news could increase chance of third Fed boost near term.

Large Cap and Growth was where you needed to be in the first nine months of 1999.

September-October, two months to be wary of.

1999’s cumulative YTD net inflows had significantly lagged behind 1998’s YTD levels until this latest month.

Through August, there has been $164 billion of cash acquisitions. This is an all-time record, over 52% more than the previous annual record of $108 billion in 1998.

The latest reading has risen to within 3% of hitting the historical selling extreme.

August was a volatile month for most of the “dotcom” companies.

Volatility was high during the month of August, still the second highest yearly level since 1974 (post WWII).

Inflation is on the rise…normal business cycle inflation, not the rebirth of new secular inflation. Also, the stampede of the lambs…the powerbase for the stock market has moved from Wall Street to Main Street.

Thus far in 1999, technology still leads. Seven of the top ten performing groups are technology subsets.

Two recent bump-up’s in rates by Fed may not be enough.

The Royal Blues studies currently identify the 99 U.S. institutional favorites…those equities with the largest dollar value and broadest institutional ownership.

The trauma of losing Big. Large Investment losses can have a dramatic psychological impact on some individuals. Defined contributions plans…A stock market time bomb?

What happened to the markets in July?..…No obvious major factor for decline. The daily stock market chart of July 1999 is close to a carbon copy of July 1998. Will history repeat itself in August? Let’s hope not.

Advise clients mandated to be fully invested to move assets away from Large Cap institutional favorites and into Mid/Small cap names.

Significant merger and acquisition activity in the past month has done little to bring buyers back into the sector.

U. S. focus equity fund inflows are estimated at $12 billion in July, down some from June’s $14.4 billion, and also down from last July’s $15.5 billion.

Through July, there has been $146 billion of cash acquisitions. This is an all-time record, over 35% more than the previous annual record of $108 billion in 1998.

With a lack of leadership and little direction in this market during July, the percent of volatile trading days was well below the YTD figure.

The latest reading is now below historical selling extremes.