Latest Research

This month’s “Of Special Interest” is an update of our annual “Playing The Bounce” exercise, in which we try to uncover stocks poised for a rebound after the tax selling abates.

Technology stocks rebound off late September sell off. The NASDAQ records its thirdbest month this year (+8.1%), and is now up 44.7% YTD.

Thoughts and commentary regarding the groups in our Select Industries Portfolio, the Mutual Fund Timing scandal, NASD Margin Debt and deficit worries.

Octophobia 2003…..The stock market has nothing to fear but fear itself. The financial system is awash in liquidity, the economy stronger than anticipated and investor confidence is returning.

Answering client questions on the economic recovery, bull market upside, valuations, Main Street and what could go wrong?

Consumer should not be underestimated. Combined mortgage debt and household debt only 14%, just barely above the 1980-to-date median.

Flow into equity mutual funds continues. Seven consecutive months of net inflow to U.S. focus equity funds, for a total of close to $100 billion.

While we still believe there are problems with the VIX as a sell signal, our study did reveal some validity in the 1997 to date period.

Ratios decline as volumes increase.

The equity market took a breather in September.

New study by The Leuthold Group suggests below average High Yield bond returns can be expected when Junk yields fall below 9%.

Economy picking up steam in second half. Revised Q2 GDP better than expected.

Recent selling by corporate Insiders is not as bad as you are being told!

Technology stocks retreat in late September. The NASDAQ records its first down month this year (–1.3%), but finished Q3 up 10.1%.

Even with a clearly improving economy, the deficit estimate for fiscal 2004 as been revised upward to $480 billion. Also, the investment survival value of opinion versus discipline and investing in actual physical industrial metals.

Yes September is most frequent month to produce declines, but average loss has been only a paltry 1.3%. Also, Septembers following bear market lows (like this year) actually produced strong performance.

The current earnings expansion has so far lasted five quarters. Our projections: $53.50 2003E reported EPS, $58.00 in 2004.

A brief recap of our reasons for a bullish outlook on Japan’s stock market.

Past bear market recoveries typically saw Main Street investors sit on the sidelines as market conditions improved…..but not this time.

Volatility continues to fade in the S&P but remains volatile on a historical basis.