Latest Research

A comparison of today’s market conditions compared to one year ago. We look at valuations, sentiment, group leadership and Major Trend categories.

GS Scores for Tech groups have been fading in recent months, with only one Tech group now viewed as Attractive. The quantitative deterioration prompted us to reduce portfolio Tech exposure.

I cannot recall another time when professional stock market opinion was so universally bullish regarding the coming year.

After a string of three consecutive down market years, the closing bell on the eve of the recent New Year put to bed the first annual gain for the U.S. stock market since 1999.

Based on the long term averages, there is additional upside to the bull market in 2004, if the S&P 500 tracks the “classic” recovery pattern.

Weighted versus Unweighted S&P 500 comparison, Russell 2000 versus S&P 500 annual comparison and 2003 equity performance by market cap tiers.

Gauging how much impact the dollar’s decline has had on the rising gold price.

We have now seen ten straight months of positive cash flow, totaling $141 billion. This momentum will likely spill over into 2004.

This month’s “Dreams & Nightmares” shows the best and worst performing equity groups in 2003. Be careful about buying 2003’s big winners. A better strategy can be achieved by buying the year’s biggest losers.

In the last few issues, we wrote about the sharp spike in OTC Bulletin Board trading volume observed in September and October. This month, we check in to review November’s trading data in order to see if anything has changed.

The 2003 performance through December 31st was relatively good, but somewhat below past years results.

The equity markets ended the year with a bang, turning in very strong December performance.

Fast growing U.S. budget deficit ($374 billion in 2003) is a significant problem for bonds. Project 2004 budget deficit will expand to $535 billion.

This month’s “Of Special Interest” presents a critical review of what we thought was the best of The Leuthold Group’s work in 2003 and what was the worst.

The broad Tech sector has rallied significantly from lows and is not cheap by tradi­tional valuation measures. Upside driver is earnings momentum, which continues to be strong.

GDP growth of 5.0% projected for 2004. But, fast growing U.S. budget deficit is a significant problem for bonds.

Inflation may prove to be a big surprise in 2004. This month’s “Of Special Interest” highlights several of the monitors we are watching regarding inflation.

The broad Tech sector has rallied significantly from lows and is not cheap by tradi­tional valuation measures. Upside driver must be earnings momentum, which contin­ues to be strong.

What’s in store for 2004? See “View From The North Country” for Steve Leuthold’s predictions. Targeting mid year stock market peak of 1250 for S&P 500 and 2400 for NASDAQ. Also makes prognostications on Interest Rates, Inflation, the Dollar, Fed Budget Deficit, and more.

November  correction we anticipated never materialized. December could be frosting on the cake as the last month of a very good stock market year.