Latest Research

Conceptually we think that the big drug stocks are poised to rebound, but they have yet to rank Attractive in the Group Selection Scores.

The spread between Long Quality Corporates and twenty year Treasury bonds is back down to a normal level, as the Treasury shortage elimination-thesis has fallen apart due to rising budget deficits.

NASDAQ was only index to decline in February. Some are wondering if the rally is over for the NASDAQ. This month’s “Of Special Interest” looks at past NASDAQ recoveries.

Still expect to see market correction develop in coming weeks. Based on past market dynamics, a correction in excess of 5% is overdue, considering it has been almost 12 months of uninterrupted market upside.

Market character changed in February, with investors focusing on less risky groups. High beta stocks, which had been leading for most of 2003 and early 2004, were the big laggers in February. Winners in February were conservative low beta issues.

The current recovery has been tracking somewhat below the performance averages of past bear market recoveries.

Earnings momentum still strong. Q4 reported S&P 500 earnings came in stronger than expected and 2004 estimates boosted to $60.00 (up 22%) after recording a 78% increase in 2003.

Much has been made of ETFs, and their ability to attract fund flow. However, outside of SPDRs and QQQs, the liquidity and asset base of most ETFs is minimal and makes investing in most ETFs near impossible for institutional investors.

The numbers continue to be strong. At this point, we attribute the strong flow to a combination of seasonals, and pent up demand.

Checking in to review January’s trading data (month lag in data) in order to see what has changed since our last update.

This value-oriented quantitative group has been rated Attractive for three consecutive months. Value, Technical, Judgmental and Insiders categories all contributing to current GS Score strength.

This month’s “View From The North Country” presents data showing periods where interest rates (both long T-bonds and 90 day T-bills) rose and stocks also rose. It can happen!

Market sell off in response to slight modification in Fed policy statement was absurd. During any healthy recovering economy, interest rates will rise in response to the improvement.

The current recovery has been tracking below the performance averages of past bear market recoveries.

January's equity fund flow was very strong across all equity subsets.

Checking in to review December’s trading data in order to see if anything has changed since our last update.

This year’s performance (through January 30th) was relatively good, but somewhat below past years’ typical results.

Upgraded to Attractive this month after three consecutive months of rising Group Selection scores.

The equity markets began the year with a very solid performance.

GDP growth of 5.0% projected for 2004 (6% in the first half, 4% in the second half). But, fast growing U.S. budget deficit ($475 billion in 2004?) is a significant problem for bonds.