Latest Research

The near term is becoming more uncertain for Health Care stocks, as HC groups have experienced an erosion in GS Score strength.

GDP growth of 4.0% projected for 2004. Improved 2004 budget deficit projections a short term positive for bonds but eventually could be a negative.

In years past, this publication has included some of my more interesting and unusual travel experiences. So, for your August beach reading, here is yet another Travels With Leuthold.

A matrix of factors to assess the relative attractiveness of Small Caps vs. Large Caps.

Steve's Half Time Report: A recap of the year so far, and our outlook for the second half of 2004.

It now seems that the market has settled into a comfort zone— or put differently— a trading range that reflects investors’ current lack of conviction about prospects for the second half of the year.

Ten new components inserted into this list of the 99 stocks with the largest institutional ownership. Smallest turnover in four years. Russell also being rebalanced.

Based on the typical recovery, we constructed a series of monthly price targets for the S&P 500, going out 24 months from the October 9, 2002 bear market low, and from the March 11, 2003 secondary low.

Derivative exposure among U.S. commercial banks continues to proliferate at alarming levels.

U.S. focus equity fund net inflow of $11 billion is estimated for June, reversing May’s light net outflow.

The Industrial Metals group, our second largest Select Industries portfolio group holding, continued to rally in June.

A total of 38.4 billion Bulletin Board shares exchanged hands in May. This is the lowest level of the year.

May’s late rally extended into June to the delight of market bulls.

We view Health Care as a key theme in 2004. The sector is defensive and sports high growth rates thanks to the large (and growing) demand from elderly Americans.

GDP growth of 5.0% projected for 2004. But, fast growing U.S. budget deficit ($458 billion in 2004?) is a significant problem for bonds.

Leuthold believes the big depressant to stock market these days is not necessarily potential for rising interest rates or higher inflation, but instead is due to the gray cloud of the Iraq situation. Good news is that U.S. may be starting to extricate itself from the Iraq quagmire, and that could be a very bullish development in June.

Uncertainty in Iraq, terrorist threats, rising inflation, and higher interest rates (and Fed tightening) have taken center stage against a backdrop of impressive corporate earnings momentum and economic recovery.

Still prefer the Small caps over Large caps, despite the fact that small caps are now selling at 1% premium relative to large caps, and that the small cap leadership phase is getting long in the tooth.

This month, at the request of a client, we examined stock market performance volatility in the periods leading up to past Presidential elections.

Making first Financial sector purchase since 2001, buying Life & Health Insurance. On a  selected basis, there are pockets of attractive Financial groups, but we still advise being underweight this sector.