Latest Research

Stock market is a leading economic indicator, and typically turns down before the economy turns down. On average, 40% of the stock market decline occurs before the recession begins.

Steve Leuthold answers client questions in this month’s “View From The North Country”, including his thoughts on the slowing earnings growth, and his definition of secular bear markets. His dollar outlook is also updated.

After all the outrage over Enron and other accounting scandals, Congress is now working to over rule the FASB recommendations and guidelines regarding the accounting for options. They have clearly caved to the Tech lobby and their campaign contributions.

Getting late in the game for the bull run. This is no longer a young bull market, but we continue to believe the market can still move higher from here.

Small Caps were big winners in September, but our Small Cap/Large Cap leadership model is still neutral (despite a slight improvement in October). Transition to Large Cap leadership is likely in coming months, but momentum continues to favor Small Caps.

Market breadth using Advance/Decline Lines looks very bullish for stocks.

Earnings growth still coming in strong. While not as robust as past 3-4 quarter’s growth rates, earnings are expected to be above historical trend line growth for the next 4-5 quarters.

Large Cap Growth stocks are now cheap relative to Large Cap Value. Value segment still leads over Growth among the Small Caps and among the Mid Caps.

The BLS’ Household and Payrolls surveys have been hopelessly out of sync for much of the current economic recovery, leading to debate about which statistic should be believed.

The average gain for the entire 12 month period spanning the pre- and post-election periods is not much different from the average gain in the comparable 12 month period for all years including non-election years.

Metals were a great place to be in the month of September, especially the latter part of the month.

U.S. focus equity fund net inflow of $10.0 billion is estimated for September.

Added a new holding in Steel stocks to the Select Industries portfolio in September.

Many of the past summer’s trends reversed last month, as September saw a bounce in “smid” caps and in the tech sector.

Bond yields have declined 40-55 basis points in the past three months.

Presenting our “Playing The Bounce” strategy, along with all the qualifying stocks. Many are Tech stocks. We may “Play The Bounce” within the asset allocation portfolios in coming weeks as market conditions present themselves.

Looking for Q4 tactical trading opportunities in Tech.

Continue to conclude the cyclical bull market prevails but my level of conviction is down a few notches. Also, an oil message from the market and “Don’t Be Economic Girlie Men”.

Small Cap stocks lagged Large Caps in July and August. Possibly getting close to a formal transition in which Large Caps take over the leadership role.

Most are aware of the recently released, relatively weak Q2 2004 ‘NIPA’ profits report.  However, many may not be aware that NIPA earnings were recently revised downward for 2001-2003 periods.