Latest Research

We view recent buy signals in Q4-2002 and Q1-2003 as a bullish indicator for the stock market. In the past, these “buy” signals have provided a timely indication that stock market performance would improve going forward.

Both indicators drop to neutral in May.

The stock market was very strong in May, following a strong April.

Is the Fed ready to buy Ten Year Treasuries to stimulate the economy? This could certainly lead to another housing/refi boom. But are lower rates really necessary to boost business spending?

We think deflation fears are overblown, but, it isn’t necessarily bad for stock performance.

Technology stocks UP BIG AGAIN in May. The NASDAQ gained 9.0% for the month (9.2% last month), second again only to the Russell 2000.

Deficit Track” March data encouraging, but…...considering the tax cuts already on the books, combined with a bulge in spending, a fiscal 2003 deficit of $400 billion is in prospect.

It will be tough for bonds to keep up with stocks over the next several years even though stock and bond returns are neck and neck over the past twenty years.

No doubt, “relief” was the primary component in April’s performance formula. Wall Street can now redirect the focus back to issues of domestic consequence….things like earnings, valuations, and economic growth.

This month, we provide historical evidence that stocks can indeed move higher, even when interest rates rise. Six periods since 1955 are proof that it can happen and we expect it to happen again.

Earnings momentum may appear to be slowing, but it is last year’s comparisons that were overstating the results.

Adding new 5.0% REIT holding in Core Portfolio. Viewing it as an alternative to the low fixed income yields.

Each year, S&P and MSCI hold an annual review to make revisions that they believe will better enable their GIC System to most accurately reflect the sectors and industries most relevant to the equity investment community. Beginning on May 1^st, a number of changes took place as a result of their annual review.

April’s net inflow total certainly benefited from improved market action, as well as 11th hour IRA contributions ahead of the April 15th deadline.

In terms of High Volatility days in April, the NASDAQ was less volatile than the S&P 500. They are about on par so far YTD.

The decline in insider selling this year is a very encouraging sign for the stock market.

Both the NASDAQ and NYSE short interest ratios increased in April.

The stock market was very strong in April across the entire market cap spectrum.

Is the Fed ready to buy Ten Year Treasuries, if necessary to stimulate the economy? This could certainly lead to another housing/refi boom, but will it be the catalyst to boost business spending/borrowing? We think not.

A look at favoritism shifts in broad economic sectors, 1977 to date. Large weights prone to correction.