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Latest Research

Automotive Retail improved into the top five rankings; Biotechnology, despite being out of favor, has both long-term growth potential and higher profitability than Pharmaceuticals; Developed Diversified Banks is up almost 20% since the election.

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We take a deeper dive into Hotels & Leisure’s GS Score and fundamental industry drivers to explore what the group has to offer above and beyond its membership in the “Trump Trade” trend.

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As we get further into the era of Trump, it will be interesting to see how the market balances anti-immigration and anti-free trade policies with deregulation and tax reform.

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Growth stocks scored a modest win over Value in January. This broke impressive streaks of Value domination—Growth’s last win in the Mid Cap space was last June.

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After spiking higher in December, our Ratio of Ratios settled closer to its long-term average in January (thanks, in part, to relative underperformance in the Small Cap space).

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Building on the momentum of the past few quarters, our “one-month” Q4 ratio sits comfortably above its historical mean for the first time in seven quarters.

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Feb 07 2017

After the big supply last month, we believe there is more room for spreads to narrow.

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This new signal is mostly due to a much lower reading three months ago.

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The market seemed hesitant to push the Trump trade any farther as new policies have focused on trade renegotiation and immigration, the less positive part of the policy package.

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While factors do offer excess return they are by no means winners in all seasons. Our findings show that factor returns are cyclical, volatile, and unstable over time.

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The Major Trend Index stabilized in a moderately bullish range during the past several weeks.

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The S&P 500 gained 1.9% in January. Based on the 1957-to-date valuation metrics presented, the potential downside compared to its historical average remained the same as last month’s reading (-21%).

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Herein we provide a year-end update on the factors we determined were important to the active/passive relationship. We found that the market environment and the success of active managers changed significantly in late 2016.

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The MTI was roughly flat during January and remains safely in the positive range. Accordingly, equity exposure is positioned at 65%, near the high end of our bullish range of 50-70%.

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We think that stocks in Trump’s current term will fall short of Obama’s gains, mostly reflecting a valuation starting point that’s almost twice as high as Obama’s was. “Managing expectations” doesn’t seem like Trump’s style, but in the case of the stock market it might not be a bad idea.

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The Major Trend Index stabilized in a moderately bullish range during the past several weeks, yet the Momentum/Breadth/Divergence category is almost the sole carrier of the bullish torch.

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The S&P 500 trailing P/E has just climbed above 25x—lower than in March 2009—but incredibly high for any period in which earnings weren’t tainted by recession.

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Veteran market analyst Bob Farrell reminds investors that when parabolic uptrends eventually stop, the next move is never sideways. We don’t know that the Dividend Aristocrats and other bond-like stocks traced out a true parabola into last summer’s peaks, but the ugly aftermath suggests they probably did.

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The sell-off into last February’s low did not qualify as a bear market, but subsequent action—including the mayhem in “factor-land”—certainly suggests it was a very significant “psychological” low.

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Tallying the overseas cash pile, predicting how much may be repatriated, and the potential impact on stock performance are challenging undertakings, which require more art than science.

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