Latest Research

We remain cyclically bullish, but it would be intellectually dishonest to try to make a serious valuation case for the stock market here.

Value stocks reversed long established underperformance to Growth in 2016. However, valuations for these “Value” stocks may have gotten ahead of themselves.

The less-well-known Stock Market Confidence survey from the Conference Board has poked into “excessively optimistic” territory for the first time since 2003

After spending the first ten months of 2016 under the long-term median premium of 3%, our Ratio of Ratios has bounced hard the past two months.

The S&P 500 closed the first week of January at a new cycle high, up 9.2% from the pre-election low made on November 4th.

The above caption—and Jimmy Buffett song title—comes from the “View From The North Country” section in the first-ever Green Book published in November 1981. Not much has changed in 35 years.

We had the best figures of the past seven quarters and put some downright awful numbers farther in the rearview mirror.

Both the macro backdrop and price trend still point to narrower spreads ahead.

While we are aware of how far markets have moved in the few short weeks since the election, we continue to maintain a Favorable view toward spread products within fixed income.

In 2016, both the U.S. and the U.K. stock markets tracked their historical patterns quite well but other international equity markets and non-equity markets tracked poorly.

There are certainly better catalysts this time that make a bear market a distinct possibility, but until a decisive break occurs (most likely when the 10-year gets above 3%), the bull market is still intact.

A summary table detailing the Attractive and Unattractive sectors and industry groups going into 2017.

A look at various dynamics affecting sector results in 2016, and what we like going into 2017, both at the sector level and among groups.

After three consecutive years of positive performance, the Group Selection (GS) Scores struggled in 2016.

Long-term debt (LTD) issued by S&P 500 companies has risen 75% since 2010, and the resulting deterioration in leverage ratios has been all too evident.

Allocation and performance details of our portfolios for January 2017.

Net cash inflow for 2016 (through November) was muted relative to that of the same period in 2015.

The S&P 500 gained 1.98% in December. Based on the 1957-to-date valuation metrics presented, the potential downside compared to its historical average widened by 1% from last month’s –20% reading.

It’s well-known that 2016 was a very difficult year for active equity managers, as if purveyors of passive products were in need of a lifeline. That’s especially disconcerting because the year was one that offered—if nothing else—big potential for outperformance.