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The advance since March 2009 has just surpassed the bull market of 1990-1998 to become the second longest bull of all time, and it will move into the top spot if it can survive until next March 15th (the “Ides of March”). The current record holder is the 1921-1929 bull, which expired just a few days following its eighth birthday.

The Major Trend Index rose 0.02 points to a ratio of 1.14 for the week ended December 23th, with no significant swings within the five factor categories. While the Intrinsic Value work reached another new extreme for the bull market, the balance of the MTI suggests that the category is likely to erode even further before this old bull finally gives up the ghost. Our tactical funds remain positioned with net equity exposure of 64%.

The mania for stability and dividend yield have been two of this bull market’s defining characteristics.

The Major Trend Index fell 0.05 points to ratio of 1.12 for the week ended December 16th, with a moderate loss in the Momentum/Breadth/Divergence category responsible for most of the decline. Net equity exposure in our tactical portfolios is unchanged at 63-64%.

It was less than two months ago that broad market valuations--measured by the Leuthold 3000 median Normalized P/E--were still within the wide range we consider to represent fair value (between the 30th and 70th percentiles). Thanks to the rush of post-election euphoria, that's no longer the case, with median P/E shooting up three points in six weeks to 26.1x.

The Major Trend Index increased 0.05 points to ratio of 1.17 for the week ended December 9th, led by the largest one-week gain in the Momentum/Breadth/Divergence category since mid-July. Some developments contributing to that gain were detailed in last Friday’s “Chart of the Week,” and suggest that a final bull market high is unlikely to be made during the next three to six months. Our tactical portfolios remain positioned with net equity exposure of 63-64%.

Wednesday's action erased two divergences cited in the latest Green Book, with both the NYSE Advance/Decline Line and the Dow Jones Transports moving to new bull market highs. The latter index had failed to do so for almost two years.

A yuuuge market sell-off expected from a Trump win was somehow avoided. Instead of lumps of coal, visions of fiscal stimulus and favorable tax policies danced in traders’ heads. As interest rates dashed higher, the market had a very clear picture of who was naughty or nice.

Thanks to the November surge in Financials and Energy, Value stocks substantially widened their 2016 performance lead over Growth. This has pushed our L3000 median valuation for Small Cap Value stocks to levels not seen since the late 1990s.

Robust Small Cap outperformance in November pushed our Ratio of Ratios back to its long-term median—a 3% Small Cap premium.

Our “two-month” Up/Down Ratio for Q3 tallies up to 1.37. This is the strongest “two-month” reading of the past seven quarters.

Earnings season is not only important for fundamental investors, it can be equally so for quant managers. For quants that incorporate fundamental data, like us, historical trends and changes in consensus estimates may weigh heavily on model output.

Companies are returning cash to investors at a level never before seen. Does the historically high level of cash being returned to shareholders crowd out the use of cash elsewhere? One wide-spread concern is that by shelling out cash through dividends and share buybacks, companies are spending less on capital expenditures. Is that a real concern?

Thanks to the U.S. dollar’s recent spike, foreign equities in dollar terms declined during November while the U.S. markets were celebrating a Trump victory. Thirty-nine of the 49 MSCI country indexes are in bear market territory from the perspective of a dollar-based investor.

We considered the launch of the QE tapering program in January 2014 as the formal onset of the Fed’s tightening campaign, and that view seemed to be on the mark when High Yield bonds, and then stocks,  unraveled over the next couple of years—although the final losses in the DJIA and  S&P 500 fell short of what we expected.

While the Dow Jones Bond Indicator has stood the test of time, history shows that rising bond yields are not always a bearish stock market phenomenon.

One of our most reliable stock market liquidity indicators decided not to wait for Janet Yellen to formally hike interest rates later this month.

With DJIA and S&P 500 losses in the 2015-16 decline limited to less than –15%, there’s no way we’d argue the episode represented a completed cyclical bear market (and we said so at the time).

We revisit our “Red Flag Indicator” of prior bull market tops versus today. Usually most of these internal market measures will deteriorate in advance of the final bull market peak. At the latest S&P high, three of the seven leading measures had raised Red Flags, by not confirming, but two of them (DJ Transports and the NYSE A/D Line), are within just ticks of new bull market highs.