Latest Research

This multi-factor estimate of stock market risk is based on a regression to median stock market levels.

We examine past capex spending patterns and identify industries with sales growth rates that have historically been the most responsive to capex cycles.

Read this week's Major Trend Index.

In February, NYSE Margin Debt finally edged above its prior record established in April 2015, a certain sign—according to many bears—that stock market speculation has reached a fever pitch.

Read this week's Major Trend Index.

Given the flood of assets into passive equity mutual funds, it’s a mathematical certainty that some unlucky investor will make his or her first purchase of the SPDR S&P 500 Trust on the exact day of the eventual bull market high.

Read this week's Major Trend Index.

For months on end, the Dow Jones Utilities has been the only bellwether group not to participate in the parade of new bull market highs.

Read this week's Major Trend Index.

The latest Green Book highlighted the unusual divergence between crude oil and the relative performance of the S&P 500 Energy sector. Crude prices had—until this week—been trading near 18-month highs, while the relative strength of Energy stocks had slipped back towards January 2016 lows.

Low Volatility was in favor once again during February after struggling the previous month. Starting in September, the factor has continuously reversed the previous month’s performance.

The S&P 500 had a very relaxing and enjoyable February in the Keys. Aside from a regrettable lower-back tattoo, the index basked in a combination of easy gains, virtually no significant down days, and historically low volatility.

Large Cap Growth is now the best performing segment YTD. After a red-hot 2016, Small Cap Value has gone nowhere in 2017.

After a 2016 year-end spike, our Ratio of Ratios has settled down below its 3% long-term median premium. Large Caps have experienced additional numerator expansion in 2017, with the S&P 500 up 6% versus the Russell 2000 2.3% gain.

Looking back at January’s robust “one-month” figure (2.07), the current result is disappointing. It was towering 13% above the long-term “one-month” average in January and now sits looking up at the historical “two-month” mean.

The Major Trend Index has remained in a tight, bullish band of 1.12-1.18 throughout the market’s post-election push to new highs. We are holding equity exposure in the Leuthold Core and Global Funds at 65-66%, the high end of their 30-70% boundaries.

Momentum factors are effective in differentiating EM sector performance, with High Momentum significantly outperforming Low Momentum. Unfortunately, there is a lack of investable EM sector vehicles.

Automobile Manufacturers, Health Care Distributors, and Homebuilding appear to be solid opportunities based on the current Group Selection Scores.

For managers who must remain fully invested in equities (or “paid to play,” as we’ve often called it), the level of inflation might prove a less important consideration than its character.

We should emphasize that any inflation pickup is likely to be a traditional, late-cycle phenomenon stemming from rising wage growth and rebounding commodity prices. We do not expect a secular move toward significantly higher inflation rates (say, north of 3.0%-3.5%).