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Ongoing investor obsession with stability strikes us as considerably more dangerous than the situation in the Tech sector. While many see market parallels with 1999, we instead see a mirror image.

The S&P 500 eclipsed the “Twin Peaks” (2000 and 2007 highs) in 2013, and two years later the NASDAQ topped its 2000 high.

We remain cyclically bullish on equities, but nonetheless like to engage in occasional downside “target practice” to shape our expectations for the next bear market.

Buying the S&P 500 on one of the worst possible days in history ultimately yielded a total return of +87.4% (+6.8% annualized) through the end of April 2017...darn, sounds like an advert for Vanguard!

The S&P 500 has labored beneath its March 1st bull market high for the last two months while underlying breadth and leadership trends have remained mostly favorable.

Bull markets bail out bad decisions—like buying the market high ahead of the Great Recession.

Value has taken its lumps to start 2017, but is it really that bad for the factor and its dedicated followers?

Mr. Market bumped his head for the first time in quite awhile. After a streak of five consecutive months with new all-time closing highs, the S&P 500 failed to break through the March 1st highs during the month of April.

2017 is shaping up to be a Growth story. Our Royal Blue High P/E Tier is outperforming the Low Tier by a spread of 10% only four months into the year.

We can say, with confidence, that although the relative P/E relationship sits at its long-term average (3% Small Cap premium), the absolute P/E ratios of both tiers are terribly high.

Despite real GDP growth of just 1.6% in 2016, the median S&P 500 company earned a net profit margin of 9.7%, only 40 basis points below the record high established in 2014.

We start 2017 with a robust reading of 1.91. With the painful memory of last quarter’s fast start and terrible finish still fresh in mind, we won’t be celebrating prematurely.

Health Care Facilities, Railroads, and Real Estate Management & Development are among the month’s intriguing opportunities based on the current Group Selection (GS) Scores.

Automotive Retail group takes a backseat while Auto Parts & Equipment takes over the wheel. We examine the market/environmental dynamics that may be causing these groups’ routes to diverge.

Despite the recent soft patch of data, the economic backdrop remains solid.

Last month, we recommended going up in quality within fixed income and we maintain this cautious stance for the time being.

The dominant theme in the last few weeks has been the notable weakness in macro-economic data.

The MTI remains safely in the positive zone.

This multi-factor estimate of stock market risk is based on a regression to median stock market levels.

Read this week's Major Trend Index.