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Auto Parts & Equipment, Hotels & Leisure, and Semiconductor Equipment are among the month’s intriguing opportunities based on the current Group Selection (GS) Scores.

With Energy stocks underperforming the S&P 500 by 20% YTD, contrarian clients are wondering if the sector holds any promise. Here we look for valuation signals that offer encouragement for bargain-hunting investors willing to buy on weakness.

“Lower Risk” signal closed out the “Higher Risk” signal generated five months ago. We’re encouraged by the resilience in risky assets during the oil sell-off and the late surge in global bond yields. We’ve been favorable toward high-grade credit and maintain this view within the fixed income space.

“Lower Risk” signal closed out the “Higher Risk” signal generated five months ago. We’re encouraged by the resilience in risky assets during the oil sell-off and the late surge in global bond yields. We’ve been favorable toward high-grade credit and maintain this view within the fixed income space.

Despite the late reversal in rates and the yield curve, the flattening trend of the yield curve remains intact. The fact that longer-term bond yields have fallen while the Fed is raising rates brings back memories of the “bond conundrum” episode during 2004-2006.

The S&P 500 hasn’t seen a down quarter since the summer of 2015. Since then, a series of seven gradual quarterly gains have produced a 26% gain. As Big Tech had a rare misstep in June, large banks carried the load for another small monthly gain in the index.

Value led in all market cap segments during June, but for Q2 overall, Value was left in the dust. Continued momentum extended Growths’ YTD leads—especially in Small Caps.

 The Small Cap P/E premium has been whittled away YTD, from 8% down to zero, as both tiers now sport a trailing P/E of 21.7x.

The final Up/Down Ratio of Q1 shows a reading of 1.47. This is the highest figure we’ve seen in the past two years but it remains stubbornly below the long-term average of 1.50.

Both the Leuthold Core Portfolio and the Leuthold Global Portfolio outperformed their respective benchmarks this month.

This multi-factor estimate of stock market risk is based on a regression to median stock market levels.

Read this week's Major Trend Index.

We’ve argued for many months that, across all of the U.S. stock market valuation work we monitor, there’s been only one chart that’s truly looked “bubbly”: the S&P Price/Sales ratio.

Read this week's Major Trend Index.

Does the stock market’s first half performance tell us anything about its likely path in the second half? Not on the face of it.

While the next recession could be caused by a variety of factors, we suspect the recovery will eventually end like most post-war expansions, only after a significant rise in interest rates.

Read this week's Major Trend Index.

One of this year’s many perplexing leadership trends has been the weak relative action of the once-coveted S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats in the face of a solid bond market rally.

Read this week's Major Trend Index.

Debate over the timing of the eventual end of the economic expansion is centered almost entirely on Fed policy. How fast will the Fed lift short rates?  How and when will it begin to contract its balance sheet? And will these moves invert the yield curve?