Latest Research

Both the Leuthold Core Portfolio and the Leuthold Global Portfolio outperformed their respective benchmarks this month.

This multi-factor estimate of stock market risk is based on a regression to median stock market levels.

Read this week's Major Trend Index.

We’ve argued for many months that, across all of the U.S. stock market valuation work we monitor, there’s been only one chart that’s truly looked “bubbly”: the S&P Price/Sales ratio.

Read this week's Major Trend Index.

Does the stock market’s first half performance tell us anything about its likely path in the second half? Not on the face of it.

While the next recession could be caused by a variety of factors, we suspect the recovery will eventually end like most post-war expansions, only after a significant rise in interest rates.

Read this week's Major Trend Index.

One of this year’s many perplexing leadership trends has been the weak relative action of the once-coveted S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats in the face of a solid bond market rally.

Read this week's Major Trend Index.

Debate over the timing of the eventual end of the economic expansion is centered almost entirely on Fed policy. How fast will the Fed lift short rates?  How and when will it begin to contract its balance sheet? And will these moves invert the yield curve?

Read this week's Major Trend Index.

While our most reliable valuation work is based on the S&P 500 (and closely-related S&P Industrials Index), we monitor several other measures for substantiation and reinforcement.

EM segments on the “Aspirer” watch list for MSCI annual market reclassification: China A-shares and Argentina. The “Achiever,” Pakistan, just recently started trading as a new member of MSCI EM Index.

Within EM, more robust growth is being exhibited by: 1) firms in Emerging Europe; 2) companies in Energy, Materials, and Financials; and, 3) larger cap companies.

The gap between crude oil prices and Energy sector RS is now much wider than seen even at that historic 2014 juncture. The “divergent” weakness in Energy stocks suggests that crude will likely trade lower.

The Amazon Effect masks both the underperformance of the average Discretionary stock and the relative value that’s been reestablished across the sector. “Discretionary ex-Amazon” is a better contrarian pick than Energy.

Last month we suggested that proclamations of a new Technology stock bubble were spectacularly premature. And, following another month of healthy gains, the S&P 500 Information Technology Index still sits on a perch that, fundamentally speaking, looks nothing like that of March 2000.

Leading inflation indicators have leveled off so far in 2017 after last year’s huge rebound from the deeply oversold readings produced by the 2014-2015 collapse in commodities.

When it rains, it pours. As if the market’s broad new highs of early June aren’t enough, here’s a pair of sub-models from the MTI’s Economic category that are set to turn bullish.