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We can say, with confidence, that although the relative P/E relationship sits at its long-term average (3% Small Cap premium), the absolute P/E ratios of both tiers are terribly high.

Despite real GDP growth of just 1.6% in 2016, the median S&P 500 company earned a net profit margin of 9.7%, only 40 basis points below the record high established in 2014.

We start 2017 with a robust reading of 1.91. With the painful memory of last quarter’s fast start and terrible finish still fresh in mind, we won’t be celebrating prematurely.

Health Care Facilities, Railroads, and Real Estate Management & Development are among the month’s intriguing opportunities based on the current Group Selection (GS) Scores.

Automotive Retail group takes a backseat while Auto Parts & Equipment takes over the wheel. We examine the market/environmental dynamics that may be causing these groups’ routes to diverge.

Despite the recent soft patch of data, the economic backdrop remains solid.

Last month, we recommended going up in quality within fixed income and we maintain this cautious stance for the time being.

The dominant theme in the last few weeks has been the notable weakness in macro-economic data.

The MTI remains safely in the positive zone.

This multi-factor estimate of stock market risk is based on a regression to median stock market levels.

Read this week's Major Trend Index.

The U.S. yield curve has flattened in the last few months but remains a long way from inversion—an event that’s preceded each of the last eleven recessions.

Thanks to reasonable valuations outside the United States, our work finds global equities only moderately above their long-term valuation norms. 

Read this week's Major Trend Index.

Federal receipts tend to be a reflection of where the economy and stock market have been rather than where they might be headed.

Closed-end funds (CEFs) rarely trade at net asset value (NAV). They either trade at a premium or a discount to share price. When demand for underlying assets is high, the price of a CEF will move above its NAV, trading at a premium. On the contrary, when investors are pessimistic about the underlying assets of a CEF, the price is driven below NAV, trading at a discount. Many studies have looked at CEF discounts and premiums as a means to gauge investor sentiment toward the assets they represent.

Read this week's Major Trend Index.

With U.S. real GDP growing about 2% year-over-year and the rest of the Developed world growing even slower, it’s hard to imagine that economic momentum may be peaking.

The tone of global economic reports in the last four months has turned decisively up, sending Citi’s Global Economic Surprise Index to the highest level since mid-2010