Latest Research

Rapid growth, coupled with regulatory support, has the potential to bring autonomous vehicles (AV) to the streets sooner than some may anticipate.

There will be occasions when the macro influences are reasserted, which happened in September.

Thumbing its nose at the laws of thermodynamics, the S&P 500 notched its eighth consecutive quarterly gain. Over these two years, the index is up 37%.

Outperformance in Financial and Energy stocks helped Value find its legs in September. For Q3, however, Growth still beat Value in all three segments.

On the back of robust Small Cap performance, our Ratio of Ratios spiked through both the Small Cap discount zone and the long-term median premium.

The Up/Down Ratio sports a final reading of 1.44. The soft earnings comparison window, running from Q1 2015 to Q2 2016, is no more.

The proposed corporate tax cut and the elimination of interest deduction are likely to reduce Corporate bond issuance while demand should remain strong.

We believe the “Goldilocks” environment is still intact. Earn the carry.

Overall, the impact of balance sheet reduction on interest rates is weak, at best. Inflation is a much bigger longer-term driver of interest rates.

The mini bond market sell-off in September was fueled by a string of positive developments, which should support the case for further upside in the Economic Surprise Index in the fourth quarter.

A fascinating aspect of long-running bull markets is the emergence of money-spinning strategies that come to be seen as “sure things.”

Read this week's Major Trend Index.

This multi-factor estimate of stock market risk is based on a regression to median stock market levels. The valuation comparisons in the detailed tables consider all inflation periods since 1957.

Read this week's Major Trend Index.

We believe the continued strength of this seemingly ageless bull market is due in part to the weakening U.S. dollar, which impacts the real economy and financial asset returns alike.

Read this week's Major Trend Index.

We just completed a simple study for those market bulls who might find themselves temporarily lacking in confidence (assuming such an animal isn’t extinct by now).

Read this week's Major Trend.

The Major Trend Index has bounced back into positive territory, and we expect an already-expensive U.S. market to make even higher highs later this year and into early 2018. But we are keeping an eye on the Intrinsic Value work to assess the potential losses that might occur when cyclical conditions eventually turn hostile—possibly in later 2018 or in 2019.

See this week's Major Trend Index.