Latest Research

Read this week's Major Trend Index.

With the Major Trend Index positive and the market about to enter the seasonally most bullish part of the calendar, we’ll offer both a trendy sector and a contrarian one for allocators looking to cap off an already good year. Specifically, we’d recommend heavy exposure to both the Information Technology and Financial sectors, which rate #3 and #1 in the October Group Selection (GS) framework.

Read this week's Major Trend Index.

From a purely technical perspective, the bull market has hardly been lacking for feathers in its cap. Yet it earned another one on Tuesday when the DJIA Smart Money Flow Index (SMFI) broke out to a new bull market high (Chart 1), erasing a “non-confirmation” that had stood since March 1st. This index thereby joins the broad list of market bellwethers—chronicled in the last Green Book—that have participated in the parade of new highs.

Read this week's Major Trend Index.

During a stock market rally we find difficult to comprehend, it somehow seems appropriate to publish a chart we’re almost at a loss to explain. The first chart shows the 90-year history of the trailing one-year (252-day) correlation of daily returns across market sectors. Correlations have been in a free-fall of late, and now appear to have a good shot at undercutting the all-time low established midway through the 2000-2002 bear market.

Read this week's Major Trend Index.

Despite cyclicality, over the longer term, investing in lower valuation countries ekes out better performance in an EM portfolio, and Dividend Yield showed the most consistency in terms of value factor effectiveness.

The Chicago Cubs’ break of the 75-year Billy Goat Curse last year might have warned us of the dangers inherent in historical pattern analysis.

While the bull possesses a seemingly endless supply of energy, the Leuthold database still houses a supply of measures by which the bull market has fallen short.

Question: Your “Estimating The Downside” section shows the S&P 500 would lose 26% if it reverts to its 1957-to-date median valuation level. The downside estimate for the S&P Industrials Index, however, is almost -40%. Why such a huge difference?

The stock market is often maligned as a poor economic forecaster, and it’s true the market has predicted several more recessions than have actually occurred.

Swings in the stock market and economic momentum are not always synchronized, and the largest price adjustments in either direction tend to occur when they are not.

Before the markets punish an irresponsible act, they must first reward it.

The MTI’s Attitudinal category has held stable over the last several months, an impressive (and contrarily bullish) feat considering the steady onslaught of new bull market highs.

"Need To Have” confirming indexes were nearly all perfectly aligned with the latest market high, and a second set of indexes we consider less critical, but “Nice To Have,” has also been in virtual lockstep.

Entering 2017, we expected a stock market “melt-up” to the 2,550-2,600 level on the S&P 500—a move we thought might run into trouble by late summer.

On a cumulative basis, YTD through August, equity and bond funds (ex. money market) have captured more money than ever before over the same period.

The Leuthold Core and Leuthold Global portfolios performed in line with their respective benchmarks during September.

Drug Retail, Life Sciences Tools & Services, and Specialized Finance are among the month’s intriguing opportunities based on the current GS Scores.