Latest Research

We believe this bull market still has legs… but so too might the mini-correction that’s hit mainly the secondary stocks thus far.

Does this year’s incredibly low stock market volatility mean the end is near? History is inconclusive.

Our Major Trend Index (MTI) recently fell from “positive” toward stocks to a “neutral” reading, leading us to trim bullish equity positions in our tactical portfolios.

Both the Leuthold Core Portfolio and the Leuthold Global Portfolio outperformed their benchmarks during August.

Read this week's Major Trend.

This multi-factor estimate of stock market risk is based on a regression to median stock market levels.

Like a hard-partying college student with a term paper due, the S&P 500 crammed in five positive sessions to end August—just enough to extend its monthly win streak to five. Weakness in the Equal Weighted Average, and awful performance in the lower quintiles, took all the shine off this victory.

Growth stocks outperformed for the seventh time out of the eight months of 2017. Small Cap Value, the biggest winner of 2016, has fallen back into negative territory YTD.

Small Caps are now selling at a 1% valuation discount to Large Caps. Underperformance from Small Caps have kept their valuations in check.

The Up/Down Ratio sports a reading of 1.44. Continuing the pattern of the previous two quarters, an above average “one-month” figure has been followed up with a below average “two-month” reading.

August factor performance was more of the same: Value underperforming everything else and extending its losing streak relative to Growth.

With the Major Trend Index now in “neutral” territory, and several well-known market strategists urging increased caution and risk awareness, we offer our perspective on defensive investing from the standpoint of our group work.

Corporate leverage is likely to plateau in the second half of the year, helped by a much improved Energy sector.

With the “Goldilocks” scenario still intact, we believe earning the carry is the right approach and high grade credit fits the bill.

If we look beyond the daily noise from North Korea, the global macro picture still fits our “Goldilocks” view pretty well.

This morning’s weaker-than-expected reading on wage inflation will no doubt boost applications to the “lower for longer” school of thought on interest rates…

Read this week's Major Trend.

This year’s cooperative bond market hasn’t helped rekindle much enthusiasm for bond-like stocks like the REITs and the Dividend Aristocrats, which are up 3% and 6% YTD, respectively, compared with a 9% gain in the S&P 500.

Read this week's Major Trend.