Latest Research

While the bull possesses a seemingly endless supply of energy, the Leuthold database still houses a supply of measures by which the bull market has fallen short.

Question: Your “Estimating The Downside” section shows the S&P 500 would lose 26% if it reverts to its 1957-to-date median valuation level. The downside estimate for the S&P Industrials Index, however, is almost -40%. Why such a huge difference?

The stock market is often maligned as a poor economic forecaster, and it’s true the market has predicted several more recessions than have actually occurred.

Swings in the stock market and economic momentum are not always synchronized, and the largest price adjustments in either direction tend to occur when they are not.

Before the markets punish an irresponsible act, they must first reward it.

The MTI’s Attitudinal category has held stable over the last several months, an impressive (and contrarily bullish) feat considering the steady onslaught of new bull market highs.

"Need To Have” confirming indexes were nearly all perfectly aligned with the latest market high, and a second set of indexes we consider less critical, but “Nice To Have,” has also been in virtual lockstep.

Entering 2017, we expected a stock market “melt-up” to the 2,550-2,600 level on the S&P 500—a move we thought might run into trouble by late summer.

On a cumulative basis, YTD through August, equity and bond funds (ex. money market) have captured more money than ever before over the same period.

The Leuthold Core and Leuthold Global portfolios performed in line with their respective benchmarks during September.

Drug Retail, Life Sciences Tools & Services, and Specialized Finance are among the month’s intriguing opportunities based on the current GS Scores.

Rapid growth, coupled with regulatory support, has the potential to bring autonomous vehicles (AV) to the streets sooner than some may anticipate.

There will be occasions when the macro influences are reasserted, which happened in September.

Thumbing its nose at the laws of thermodynamics, the S&P 500 notched its eighth consecutive quarterly gain. Over these two years, the index is up 37%.

Outperformance in Financial and Energy stocks helped Value find its legs in September. For Q3, however, Growth still beat Value in all three segments.

On the back of robust Small Cap performance, our Ratio of Ratios spiked through both the Small Cap discount zone and the long-term median premium.

The Up/Down Ratio sports a final reading of 1.44. The soft earnings comparison window, running from Q1 2015 to Q2 2016, is no more.

The proposed corporate tax cut and the elimination of interest deduction are likely to reduce Corporate bond issuance while demand should remain strong.

We believe the “Goldilocks” environment is still intact. Earn the carry.

Overall, the impact of balance sheet reduction on interest rates is weak, at best. Inflation is a much bigger longer-term driver of interest rates.