Latest Research

Evidently, being a bull in a bull market is no longer good enough.

Momentum is one of the most widely accepted alpha-generating factors, used by quantitative and fundamental managers alike. Its biggest drawback, however, is high turnover. Herein we explore momentum from the perspective of sector weights.

The Leuthold Core Portfolio and the Leuthold Global Portfolio both lagged their respective all-equity benchmarks in another strong month for domestic and international equity markets.

Read this week's Major Trend Index.

Apparently tax reform wasn’t priced in.

This multi-factor estimate of stock market risk is based on a regression to median stock market levels.

The eighth consecutive month of gains for the S&P 500 was made possible by some unlikely heroes.

With a late-month surge in Financials and slump in Tech, our Royal Blue Low P/E Tier turned in its best monthly performance of 2017, and beat the High P/E Tier for only the third time this year.

After some turbulence early this year, our Ratio of Ratios seems to have found a comfortable spot. This is the third consecutive month with a 4% premium for Small Caps.

Our Up/Down Ratio sports a “two-month” reading of 1.43—the lowest level of 2017. All is not lost—we’ve seen decent aggregate earnings growth in 2017 despite below average Up/Down figures.

Asset Management & Custody Banks, General Merchandise Stores, and Hotels & Leisure are among the month’s intriguing opportunities based on the current GS Scores.

Defying the industrials sector slump.

These bonds were quite stable during the credit sell-off in November and they remain good candidates for earning the carry.

The index ticked up on the back of higher VIX, a High Yield credit mini sell-off, and EM underperformance. We are turning a bit more cautious toward credit but still recommend safe spreads within fixed income.

The calm appearance of the 10-year yield masked a big curve-flattening move that has accelerated the last few months.

Read this week's Major Trend Index.

Momentum has had a terrific year relative to all other quant factors, but Wednesday’s action forewarns of the mayhem that will likely accompany the eventual rotation out of Momentum (and Growth) and into Value stocks.

See this week's Major Trend Index.

While there are certainly some performance disparities within the U.S. stock market, there’s no way we can argue (even if we’d like to) that it has become too selective.