Macro Monitor

Looking out ten years, can today’s overvalued stock market outperform 7% Treasury zeros?

• Read more

Bond market decline slowed in May. But positive economy news, potential Fed tightening (not likely near-term), and labor inflation still disturb bond market investors.

• Read more

Bond market retreated in April and early May as Q1 GDP came in well ahead of estimates, raising expectations that the Fed will tighten rather than ease. Longer term, yields could move toward 5%, if confidence in U.S. dollar is rebuilt via fiscal reform.

• Read more

Bond market was punished again in March by continued (forced?) hedge fund selling and unexpected stronger economic signals casting doubts on further Fed easing. Rising labor costs and higher energy and grain prices provided reasons for worry.

• Read more

Insight derived from Jim Bianco’s excellent Market Commentaries. At Arbor Trading Group Inc., Jim does some of the best, original, and thought provoking work that comes into our shop.

• Read more

Bond market was pummeled in February by weaker dollar, aggressive hedge fund selling, and Mr. Greenspan’s positive economic comments which cast doubts on further significant Fed easing.

• Read more

Bond market rally stalled out in January...concern over the recent spike in gold prices, political uncertainty, and upcoming treasury auction, seemed to outweigh the weak economic news. Bonds seem over-extended on a short term basis.

• Read more

Bond market rally continued in December. Government shutdown curtailed information flow, but economy still looks lame and inflation tame. Investors forced to focus on Washington's political farce.

• Read more

The big bond market rally continued to roll ahead in November, with yields in most bond sectors falling 20-25 basis points.

• Read more

Bond market rally continues: weaker economic news, lethargic consumer spending, and tame inflation reports increase likelihood of further Fed easing. Other positives include strong foreign buying, and improving fiscal disciplines.

• Read more

Bond market rally continues: weaker economic news, lethargic consumer spending, and tame inflation reports increase likelihood of further Fed easing...other positives include stronger dollar, foreign buying, and declining budget deficit.

• Read more

Bond market rally rekindles, as consensus changes from “one and done” to possibility of further easing...other positives include stronger dollar and foreign buying.

• Read more

Bond market rally sputters, as consensus changes from multiple Fed rate cuts to “one and done”. Greenspan upbeat assessment of economy chokes off further bond advance.

• Read more

Powerful bond rally in May and early June started to lose its sizzle later in the month, as less negative economic news diminished chances of imminent Fed easing.

• Read more

Powerful bond rally in May and early June propels bond performance to move ahead of stocks year to date.

• Read more

Weight of the evidence bond market Major Trend still negative this month. Weak dollar, commodity inflation warnings, combined with diminishing investor demand helped to keep our Index in negative territory.

• Read more

Weight of the evidence bond market discipline shifted to negative from neutral this month.

• Read more

Bond market now ahead of itself...Economy stronger than many perceive...Fed may not be done tightening...Expect bond market correction to develop from overbought position sometime in March.

• Read more

Weight of the evidence discipline remains neutral this month. Long T-bond six and twelve month worst case still seen only as 8.50% level.

• Read more

Weight of the evidence discipline improved from negative to neutral this month.  Long T-bond six and twelve month risk seen only as 8.50% level.

• Read more