Macro Monitor

The big bond market rally continued to roll ahead in November, with yields in most bond sectors falling 20-25 basis points.

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Bond market rally continues: weaker economic news, lethargic consumer spending, and tame inflation reports increase likelihood of further Fed easing. Other positives include strong foreign buying, and improving fiscal disciplines.

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Bond market rally continues: weaker economic news, lethargic consumer spending, and tame inflation reports increase likelihood of further Fed easing...other positives include stronger dollar, foreign buying, and declining budget deficit.

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Bond market rally rekindles, as consensus changes from “one and done” to possibility of further easing...other positives include stronger dollar and foreign buying.

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Bond market rally sputters, as consensus changes from multiple Fed rate cuts to “one and done”. Greenspan upbeat assessment of economy chokes off further bond advance.

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Powerful bond rally in May and early June started to lose its sizzle later in the month, as less negative economic news diminished chances of imminent Fed easing.

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Powerful bond rally in May and early June propels bond performance to move ahead of stocks year to date.

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Weight of the evidence bond market Major Trend still negative this month. Weak dollar, commodity inflation warnings, combined with diminishing investor demand helped to keep our Index in negative territory.

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Weight of the evidence bond market discipline shifted to negative from neutral this month.

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Bond market now ahead of itself...Economy stronger than many perceive...Fed may not be done tightening...Expect bond market correction to develop from overbought position sometime in March.

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Weight of the evidence discipline remains neutral this month. Long T-bond six and twelve month worst case still seen only as 8.50% level.

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Weight of the evidence discipline improved from negative to neutral this month.  Long T-bond six and twelve month risk seen only as 8.50% level.

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Economy Humming Along...Fed Not Done Yet...Inflation Still Number One Worry

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Weight of the evidence discipline remains negative on a cyclical basis, but long T-bond six month risk seen only as 8.25%-8.50% level, with 12 month risk at 8.50% level.

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Weight of the evidence discipline remains negative on a cyclical basis, but long T-bond six month risk seen only as 8.25%-8.50% level, with 12 month risk at 8.50% level.

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Weight of the evidence discipline remains negative on a cyclical basis.

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Weight of the evidence discipline remains negative on a cyclical basis, but rally seems underway.

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Weight of the evidence discipline remains negative.

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Weight of the evidence discipline remains negative, but market now in 7.50%-8.00% accumulation zone. Yield curve is flattening out.

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Weight of the evidence discipline remains negative, but market now in 7.50%-8.00% accumulation zone. Yield curve looks like it may be flattening out.

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