Macro Monitor

Despite weaker economic news, still expect Fed to bump rates up at least once more.

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Further Fed tightening to come…..Next few month inflation news likely to be scary.

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Strong economic news, and rising inflation trends make further Fed tightening almost a certainty.

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Strong economic news, and rising inflation trends make further Fed tightening almost a certainty.

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Yield curve inversion reflects supply/demand dynamics, expectations of further Fed tightening and unwinding of short strategies by speculators.

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Strong economic news, and rising inflation trends  make further Fed tightening likely.

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Rising equity prices, strong economic news, and inflation trends  make further Fed tightening likely (next year).

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Rising stocks and still good economic news make third Fed boost likely.

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Rising stocks and better economic news could increase chance of third Fed boost near term.

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Two recent bump-up’s in rates by Fed may not be enough.

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Last month’s 25 basis point bump-up by Fed will not be the last. More tightening seems likely.

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Recent 25 basis point bump-up by Fed will not be the last. More tightening seems likely but T-bonds now look to be in the high end of a buying zone.

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Strong likelihood the Fed will tighten in next few months, but today’s market rates may already factor in future 25-50 basis point Fed bump up in short rates.

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New inflation fears and strong economy contributing to higher yields. Think Fed may tighten (50% likelihood) in coming months to slow down amazing economy.

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New inflation fears and strong economy contributing to higher yields. Fed may tighten in coming months to slow down this high powered economy.

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Big Rise in Treasury yields has resulted in improved risk/reward profile for T-bonds.

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1998 Inflation Projections: CPI expected to end 1999 about unchanged from year end 1998 levels (year over year change of 0.0%).

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At current levels U.S. T-bonds are viewed as neutral.  U.S. T-bond upside potential now only slightly above downside potential.

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All in all, inflation pressures are expected to remain minimal. Through 1999, the CPI and PPI will likely remain between an environment of mild inflation and mild deflation.

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At current levels U.S. T-bonds are no longer viewed as attractive. U.S. T-bond potential downside now about matches upside potential. Our 17 year old 5% T-bond target was achieved last month.

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