Macro Monitor

Streisand concert tickets got more bids than treasuries in late March and the first day of April. It was a painful period for both bond and stock investors.

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At this point, the bond market outlook is still viewed as negative, it was also negative last month. The upside seems minimal over the next 6-12 months.

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Weight of the evidence discipline remains negative for bond market.

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Weight of the evidence now mildly negative on bond market.

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The late October bond market retreat spilled over into November, as nervous investors continued to be bombarded with better than expected economic reports.

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Bond market bulls experienced a brief chill in mid-October. After starting the month on a strong note, most bond categories retreated for the remainder of the month as better economic news began to trickle in.

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Almost all bond sectors were unchanged or up very slightly in September. The month started out strongly following weak economic news and a declining PPI. However, a higher than expected CPI, turmoil in Mother Russia, a “pop” in oil prices and even some positive economic reports pushed most bond prices lower as the month progressed.

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The bond market's wish list was fulfilled in August. Inflation readings came in below expectations, economic signals continued to point towards sluggish growth and signs of deficit reduction progress surfaced once again.

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Long treasuries moved higher during the first half of July buoyed by favorable June inflation numbers and generally weak economic signals. However, most bond prices did an about face in the middle of the month.

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Yields remained in a narrow trading band in early June, as investors braced themselves for another volley of ominous PPI and CPI announcements. But, upon release of May's surprisingly good inflation numbers, the bond market began a steady march upward for most of the remainder of the month.

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Shorter-term treasuries finished May on a weak note, reflecting concerns over possible tightening by the Fed. Long treasuries were nearly unchanged for the month, realizing a slight gain, as the President's deficit reduction plan cleared its first hurdle.

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With today's interest rates at the lowest levels in more than two decades, the “Real” Interest Rate Theory is being used as a bullish argument asserting rates may move lower. Although this may be the case, we feel it timely to print Steve's outline highlighting the problems associated with this concept.

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The early April surge in the bond market stalled out at the late February highs, beating a hasty retreat in the last week of the month.

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Debt monetization evaluated by three separate measures. All three measures suggest monetization is increasing, however the severity of this trend is debatable. Judge for yourself.

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Corporates managed a gain in March but Treasuries were weak near month end. Developing an “unbiased” Bond Market Trend Index based on a list of factors that we feel are important in determining the overall health of the long U.S. bond market.

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There were two mighty explosions in lower Manhattan in February. One was horrible and the other wonderful, at least for the banks and brokers who had loaded up on bonds and notes. However, from this publication's standpoint, both explosions were pretty much viewed as horrible. (See comments later in this section.)

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1993's bond market has started on a strong note, with gains of two points or more in long T-bonds.

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The fixed income markets ended the year on a strong note.

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All things considered, I think November's long bond market performed surprisingly well.

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Yes, the fixed income markets are confusing these days. Maybe the fog will clear after the election. But here on November 2nd, I won't speculate on that.

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