Macro Monitor

The bond market is looking increasingly vulnerable. The economy appears to be deteriorating, inflation is nowhere in sight and short rates are declining. With all this going for it, why is the bond market stagnating?

• Read more

My current view towards long bonds from an institutional investor's point of view is to sell some now and sell some more when longer term momentum slows.

• Read more

Overall, July was one heck of a month for the fixed income markets. Most of the move in short term paper came early in the month but longer term fixed income securities continued their steady rise until the last three days of July.

• Read more

June was a rather steady dull month in the bond market but there was a pre-4th of July explosion on the upside as bond market grave dancers cheered the stunning jump in unemployment.  

• Read more

The bond market, helped out by some good CPI and PPI numbers, scored typical net gains of 2+ points in May. Long bond yields, corporates, treasury zeros and treasury coupon bond yields fell 20 basis points....all in all, a pretty good month.

• Read more

The bond market continued to edge higher in the first part of April, but then the Chicago River drained the T-bond market of its liquidity, flooding out T-bond and T-note futures trading.

• Read more

The bond market sagged in the first half of March as the economic outlook improved, deficit dears increased and the crowd of early 1992 bond market bulls pulled in their horns.

• Read more

The T-bond market continued its slide in the first hald of February, extending the peak to trough decline to 60 basis points.

• Read more

Most of January was a downhill ride for the bond market, although high yield (junk) bonds typically moved up 2 or 3 points.

• Read more

In November, long and short rates did not move together, but in December they sure did.

• Read more

The long bond market edged to a marginal new high in mid-November but sagged in the last half of the month. On the other hand, short rates fell sharply. Once again it has been demonstrated that long and short rates do not have to move together.

• Read more

Even though higher quality long bonds stalled in October, short rates continued to decline in anticipation of yet another cut in the discount rate. Once again it has been demonstrated that long and short rates do not have to move together.

• Read more

The bond market parted company with the stock market in September, extending its July-August advance while the stock market backed and filled. Only junk bonds were a mixed bag, as all other fixed income sectors moved up in tandem.

• Read more

August was a good month for bonds. Long treasuries recorded net gains of three points or more, with yields falling 30 basis points. T-bonds are now back up to where we sold them in January and February 1991.

• Read more

In July, the bond market gained back about what it had lost in June. After a quick sell off following Independence Day, prices moved erratically higher for the remainder of the month.

• Read more

The first half of June was almost all downhill for the bond market. The remainder of the month was spent moving sideways, with a blast upward on the last day of the month. It was a mini flee to quality.

• Read more

In early May, the bond market was hit hard by a post Treasury financing sell off. It spent the rest of the month recovering.

• Read more

For the month of April, higher quality long bonds turned in small fractional gains. The economic tea leaves were mixed, inflation numbers were good, the dollar held up and short term rates came down. However, a big pick up in new fixed income offerings seemed to satisfy investor demand.

• Read more

This month, the Conventional Asset Allocation Model has added to its holdings of German government bunds, taking them up to 18% of the model’s assets. Normally this would be a subject for this publication’s “Foreign Investments” section. However, the considerations involved in making this investment decision should be of broader client interest.

• Read more

In March, the fixed income markets were a mixed bag. Short term rates fell 25 basis points and 90 day bills ended the month well below 6% (5.74%). Junk bonds extended their sharp February rally. Outside of short term rates and junk bonds, the fixed income markets recorded little net change in March.

• Read more