Inside The Stock Market ...trends, cross-currents, and outlook

Steps are falling into place for the U.S. market to climb another 15-20% into 2012.

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VLT has turned up for most market indices. Even though it is still above the zero line, history shows that this signals an extension of the bull market.

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With the new ISM figures for March, the Liquidity Index has moved into the maximum negative zone with a reading just below the bearish –20 threshold.

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While Low Quality stocks have been beating High Quality, performance was on par in Q1. High Quality cheap relative to Low Quality and the tide may be turning.

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Asset allocation portfolios continue to hold big positions in Emerging Markets. Jun Zhu presents an initial study exploring the use of Emerging Market Closed End Funds historical premium/discount levels as a predictor of future Emerging Market performance.

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The game is now over for Discretionary, and this opinion is supported by the sector’s decline to the bottom of our GS Score ten-sector composite.

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Healthy Tigers is not a new exhibit at the zoo, but rather a new index of stocks that will benefit from expanding health care in emerging Asia countries, especially in China.

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Doug Ramsey highlights the “point of recognition” in this month’s “Inside The Stock Market” section. This is the point of maximum market upthrust, the point at which even hardened pessimists become convinced that the economic recovery and bull market are for real.

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S&P Normalized valuations are already in the zone that have defined many important bull market tops.

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As we expected, it was not a memorable “Playing The Bounce” year.

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All time honored seasonal anomalies are indicating stocks can go higher in 2011. The good news is our Major Trend Index agrees, and has actually been getting stronger the last few weeks.

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Fundamental rationales also have strong psychological elements. Normalizing earnings helps minimize the startling impact of declining earnings.

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From our perspective as disciples of Normalized EPS, the entire bull market to date has come from P/E expansion. However, that stands to change as global Normalized EPS are again on the rise.

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Economic growth is re-accelerating, but that growth is coming at a cost…price pressures are building significantly. Manufacturing prices are up along with commodity prices.

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If we look only at the past eleven years, 2000-2010, the S&P 500 has decisively underperformed the Russell 2000.

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As we expected, it was not a very good “Playing The Bounce” year. Many fund managers still had substantial tax loss carry forwards which they used to offset 2010 gains.

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2010 was better than it felt for the equity markets, but while 2011 may be better for the economy, it might not be as strong for the equity markets. Could the bull market be running out of milestones?

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Year-ahead stock market forecasts are now in hot demand, but of course are notoriously off the mark most years. Very long term forecasts (say, out to the end of the decade) are in virtually no demand, but are considerably easier to get close to the mark for those armed with the right tools. 

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History appears to be repeating itself as the risk premium for stocks is making a comeback. Ten-year Treasuries are now the riskier asset class compared to equities.

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We examine the correlation between CleanTech and Petroleum and find that, contrary to what is commonly believed, the overall correlation between oil prices and Clean Technology shares is rather weak.

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