Inside The Stock Market ...trends, cross-currents, and outlook

The risk premium for stocks is making a comeback. Our quarterly examination of the stock/bond performance differential finds ten-year Treasuries are now the riskier asset class compared to equities.

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MTI studies of market values, investor psychology and price action have (so far) overwhelmed the economic “elephants in the room.” A few thoughts on those elephants.

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Jun Zhu examines Chinese companies with Variable Interest Entity (VIE) structures. Investors shouldn’t be completely turned off by concerns over these structures, but it would be wise to heed the risks.

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Another breadth blastoff gives us reasons for optimism that our bullish predictions for the end of the year will hold.

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Looking to profit from the boom in domestic natural gas production? Dave Kurzman examines the opportunities and potential pitfalls in Shale gas, and finds some viable investment opportunities, but urges caution.

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It’s been quite awhile since we’ve engaged in target practice (... and considering my 20/300 vision, the world is a much safer place for it).

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Stock markets across much of Europe are priced cheaply enough that investors might need very little incentive to get in, attempting to reap respectable returns.

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High Quality Stocks outperformed their Low Quality comparators in the second quarter, and we find signs that a new High Quality Cycle is starting to take off.

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After annual summer correction re-run, we believe the market swoon is over, having produced a garden variety correction of -7.2%.

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Housing data is so far following the picture-perfect path of a bubble aftermath. Based on other bubbles, the next cyclical top in housing will likely occur at astonishingly low levels.

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In mid-May, we re-initiated a short position across all three tactical funds in U.S. Treasury bonds.

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Mutual fund outflow played significant role in Major Trend deterioration. There have been about 6 1/2 months where the four week average has shown net inflow to U.S. equity funds, but outflow is now accelerating as three of last four weeks have seen net outflow.

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Periods of accelerating inflation generally lead to lagging stock market performance.

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For now, net equity exposure in both the Core and Asset Allocation Portfolios will remain around 60%, as we wait to see what happens to this analysis in coming weeks.

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Significant pull-back in High Beta stocks, but the weakening bid does not necessarily spell the end of the bull market.

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U.S. capacity utilization rate is more than four percentage points below the magic 82% threshold, yet factory pricing pressures are already through the roof.

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Dave Kurzman, Leuthold Clean Tech guru, outlines the solar companies which are in the best and worst positions for potential mergers or acquisitions.

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Jun Zhu examines the use of Emerging Market Mutual Fund Flow as a sentiment indicator. It works best as a buy signal, but is not bad as a sell signal. Currently neither on a buy or sell.

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Don’t expect a summer swoon, but stocks may make little progress until fall. Most of our bull market targets discussed in 2009—early 2010 have been achieved with the exception of a return to median bull market peaks based on normalized earnings (only 1.5% away).

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Market in gear, with almost all market indices hitting new highs in tandem. Would be unusual for a market correction with this type of uniformity.

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