Inside The Stock Market ...trends, cross-currents, and outlook

here is a lot to write about this issue, including a number of equity portfolio changes and shifting sector strategies. But this publication must also uphold a cherished February tradition.

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Each year, along about February, this publication makes a series of "Fearless Forecasts". Readers should not confuse these forecasts with the more traditional economic and market predictions that appeared in last month's issue. Still, in the past, the "Fearless Forecasts" have, at times, been closer to the mark than the conventional predictions.

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1987 closed with a pretty good rally, a rally extending into early January 1988.

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The Leuthold Group's special research study on this subject was sent to clients last month.

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Another New Year has arrived.

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The Outlook - A Summary of Current Views…Faulty Recollection of 1929…A Crash Still Waiting To Happen…December Bottom Fishing Time…Aussie Bonds…The Leuthold Group Eats Some Garlic

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The cyclical bear market appears to be bottoming, but that is only an opinion. Although improved, the Major Trend Index remains negative. Thus, we remain very cautious. We respect the numbers more than our opinion.

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This issue our conventional asset allocation model is shifting part of its catastrophe insurance gold holding into platinum. We are becoming increasingly concerned about a gold glut in the next decade, while quantum leaps in platinum production are not in prospect.

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The Major Trend Index still negative but improved last week. I doubt that the market has recorded its bear market low, but I do think we are getting close.

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For quite some time this publication has been maintaining that “the next cyclical bear market could be very similar to 1962”. At least up to now, the 1987 decline does indeed closely resemble 1962.

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Maybe it's a Minnesota year - the Twins win the World Series and Northwest Airlines leads the pack terms of customer complaints! Also, tracking the impact of Black October around the world.

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Don Weeden’s two-in-one solution to the debt crisis…Do dividends matter anymore?

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Our view remains unchanged in terms of prudent investment strategy. While trading opportunities may abound in the next few weeks, both long and short, the stock market is downright dangerous.

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This last month, a client and I were discussing what the stock market was like back in the 1960’s and early 1970’s. We saw a number of parallels with the current market.

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A Swede jumps ship at the Leuthold Port, a month of much research recapped, hypocrites on the Hill and Airline miseries.

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Program trading has recently re-emerged as a major market influence. Extraordinary hour to hour volatility has returned. It appears that portfolio insurance futures selling is with us again as a significant volatility force.

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Here are some of the client questions that have been raised recently. Perhaps some of you have some of these same questions.

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This morning on television, I heard a Wall Street pundit proclaim that “the stock market has a bottomless pool of liquidity”. No doubt, when investor fear replaces investor greed, you will hear about the stock market being a “bottomless pit”.

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Historically, small cap stocks have outperformed big cap stocks in about two out of three years. But this has not been the case since mid-1983. What is going on? Has the investment world changed? Will small stocks ever again lead the parade?

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Bring on the Mystics, Special Situation Research...Correction, Correction, Australian Bonds...The Right Guys Won, The Japan Factor

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