Inside The Stock Market ...trends, cross-currents, and outlook

For a number of years, we have used Jim Floyd's computer screen to isolate stocks most likely to score the largest gains from early December through the end of January.

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This issue includes some New Year's traditions. First, our economic and market outlook for the New Year.

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It continues to appear the stock market is forming a major cyclical bull market top. The Major Trend Index did improve some in December but remains convincingly negative with a reading of +1461 and -2000.

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Speaker Notes from Collins Associates Client Conference...The Passing of Two Good Friends, Jim Arnold and Sedge Coppock...Other Voices on Program Trading...What Is Going on In Gold

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It continues to appear that the stock market is forming a major cyclical bull market top. The Major Trend Index continued to deteriorate in November and indicates the market is in poor health and a cyclical bear market is likely.

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Remember the basics: A slowing economy should bring lower interest rates but it also typically brings declining earnings, not usually a good environment for stocks.

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Using history as a guide, the current secular bull market may run another 5 years or more. By historical standards, it is well past middle age, but is not yet ready to keel over.

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The purpose of this issue’s “In Focus” is to provide readers with a better understanding of our Major Trend Index and answer some of the typical questions asked about this work.

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Perception of Stock Market Risk Has Increased Significantly...Notes from the Recent Contrarian Opinion Forum...Program Trading Controls

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With the October 30th calculation, The Leuthold Group’s Major Trend Index has shifted into negative territory. Thus, our disciplined weight of the evidence approach dictates a very cautious policy.

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Welcome Scott Archer.... More Bank Troubles and Write-Offs.... U.S. Banks Played Key Role in Oil Bath, Real Estate Debacle, Third World Loans and Busted LBO’s.... America As The “Center” Of the World Economic Universe.... Australia/New Zealand Update

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The 1987-89 bull market game is not over according to our work, but indications are that it’s in the 8th or 9th inning. In the coming months, as “soft landing” and “fly by” thinking shifts to “recession thinking”, the stock market could get pretty nasty.

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Making relative value judgements for cyclicals on a P/E basis can be tricky. These stocks often look the cheapest when they should be sold and look the most expensive when they should be bought.

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In August, as the “fly by” thesis went to the top of Wall Street’s popularity charts, the big cyclicals gained a new lease on life.

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The 1987-89 bull market game is not over according to our work but indications are it’s in the 8th or 9th inning. In the coming months, as “soft landing” and “fly by” thinking shifts to “recession thinking”, the stock market could get pretty nasty.

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In Memory of Ken Smilen...Unreal estate...New Zealand and Australian Market Update...Japanese Market and Copper

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Clients are asking how much more is in this market? Herein we will attempt to provide an answer to this question, without the aid of charts, astrology, or Evel Knutson. Rather, we will employ over 60 years of historical valuation facts.

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Recessions And Soft Landings....Why Stocks Have Moved Higher....New Zealand And Australia Update

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Wall Street pulled down the caution flags a few months ago. Correction became the consensus. But it wasn’t to be. All those newly converted late arriving bulls who were planning to add stocks on a 7%-10% correction never got their chance to put the cash to work.

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Last month Dean Witter announced they were getting out of the program trading business. Maybe some other big retail oriented brokerage firms will follow suit. A blowout day on the downside may be all that is needed.

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