Inside The Stock Market ...trends, cross-currents, and outlook
The Rinfret Market?
In August, as the “fly by” thesis went to the top of Wall Street’s popularity charts, the big cyclicals gained a new lease on life.
View from the North Country
Recessions And Soft Landings....Why Stocks Have Moved Higher....New Zealand And Australia Update
“Just Get Invested!”
Wall Street pulled down the caution flags a few months ago. Correction became the consensus. But it wasn’t to be. All those newly converted late arriving bulls who were planning to add stocks on a 7%-10% correction never got their chance to put the cash to work.
We Need More Dean Witters
Last month Dean Witter announced they were getting out of the program trading business. Maybe some other big retail oriented brokerage firms will follow suit. A blowout day on the downside may be all that is needed.
How Much More Is in This Market?
Clients are asking how much more is in this market? Herein we will attempt to provide an answer to this question, without the aid of charts, astrology, or Evel Knutson. Rather, we will employ over 60 years of historical valuation facts.
View from the North Country
The Early Warning Work: Have We Found The Keys To The Kingdom?....The Wisdom Of Paul Miller....New Zealand and Australia Updates
Not a New Bear Market
The bull market is still healthy according to our Major Trend Index. The current weakness amounts to nothing more than an intermediate correction, the correction our Early Warning work anticipated when it provided a sell signal back on June 6th and reaffirmed on June 27th.
Current Outlook
New highs for the market are still expected in 1989. But I think it is quite likely that the 1987 high will, for a while at least, be a significant resistance zone.
Current Outlook
The Major Trend (cyclical bull market) is still healthy, but chances of an intermediate correction have increased.
Growth Versus Cyclical
The following chart and commentary regularly appear in the appendix. Since we are adding a new growth component to the equity model this issue we thought this work deserved a place “up front”.
View from the North Country
Aussie Bonds Attractive Once Again...MTA Seminar...Copper Update...The Age Wave Consumer...Bullish? Gold Charts
We Now Have a Lot of Company
One of our clients recently said, “I suppose you guys will turn bearish now that we have all come to agree with you.” Well, not yet. The majority can be right for a while. Sometimes it pays to be with the crowd. Our work tells us this is one of those times.
View from the North Country
Concerned About The Deficit And Fiscal Irresponsibility But Still Bullish On Stocks...Emotion Can Be The Investor’s Worst Enemy...Our Permanent Congress?...What Ever Happened To The Gramm-Rudman Targets For The Deficit...New Zealand Update
The April Surprise
April’s stock market action surprised the majority. The “surprising” strength in the stock market was fueled by a 50 basis point decline in short term rates, continuing evidence of an economic slowdown and less terrifying inflation numbers.
“The Boys Are Back in Town"
After the 1987 crash, a goodly portion of the program crowd retired. But now, some 18 months after the debacle, a major part of the program crowd is clearly out of retirement, back in action.
No Change in Outlook
March market action surprised many observers. The market recorded a gain for the month. To many it had appeared an intermediate correction (or worse) was underway. But instead of breaking the February lows, the stock market bounced.
Advance/Decline Ratio of Quarterly Earnings
Will the current earnings momentum be maintained in the upcoming months? Even considering the limited history of this study, the current trend would seem to be quite favorable for 1989’s first quarter and perhaps the second quarter.
View from the North Country
Benchmarks Mailed to All Clients in Late March...Hall Of Famer “Sedge” Coppock...MTA Annual Seminar May 19-21, Naples, Florida...New Zealand Update...Precious Metals Update
Three Steps and Stumble
The most recent rise in the discount rate triggered the “Three Steps and Stumble” rule. Years ago, Edson Gould popularized this theory. In effect, it is based on the assumption that tight credit ultimately terminates a bull market.
Fearless Forecasts...1989
Each year, along about this time, this publication (with help from our readers) makes a series of “Fearless Forecasts” - frivolous flights of foolishness and fantasy.
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