Inside The Stock Market ...trends, cross-currents, and outlook

A significant intermediate term stock market rally may soon be getting underway. As of our August 29th calculation, the Early Warning Index of intermediate bottoms gave a Buy signal. The response of our Major Trend Index in this expected rally is now critical.

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Political Overreaction to the Drought...Grain Markets Reveal Improved Crop Expectations...Japanese Stock Market Update...DeBeers and South Africa

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The stock market in July was a dull listless affair....at least until the last two days of the month. However, at this point, even this rally has not been impressive. Not much breadth and not much conviction.

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Japan is clearly becoming more assertive and aggressive in its dealings with other countries. Economic muscle instills confidence. Larry Jeddeloh provides his observations and comments on the Japanese real estate invasion of Hawaii.

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Update on Client and “Street” Reaction to Neil Dolinsky’s Sell Report on Tele-Communications...Japanese Stock Market Update...Health Care Industry: Why Are Costs Skyrocketing?

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Perhaps the healthiest thing of all about June in Wall Street was that nobody got very excited about it. The bearish contingent has backed off a bit, but I sure don’t see many charging bulls...not even very many sauntering bulls.

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I think the market looks quite impressive. Many of the formula types, the now in vogue “tactical asset allocators”, will have to scramble back into stocks if long bond rates continue to come down or if earnings growth assumptions go up.

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Compared to low P/E institutional stocks, the high P/E institutional stocks are very cheap in terms of relative P/E’s. But don’t get too bullish yet. There is more to the story.

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Special Situation Stock Research: An Update…Budget Deficits Feature Provokes Some Reader Response…National Economic Commission

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The stock market did make a new low in May, a wimpy move below the twin lows of March and April. There was a lot of misery and retching on the part of professionals and technical types, but nothing much happened. Then our Early Warning Index of intermediate bottoms registered a buy signal.

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U.S. Politics and Fiscal Responsibility…The Japanese Stock Market…Aussie Bond Update

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How dull can a market get? In April, nobody wanted to buy stocks and nobody wanted to sell, at least nobody but the program gang and dividend passers.

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After one week of a “neutral” reading in March, our Major Trend Index returned to positive territory the following week. I continue to think a 15%-20% move in popular measures is a good possibility in the next six to nine months.

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March was another strong relative month for secondary stocks. We are now operating under the assumption that a significant shift in market character has occurred.

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U.S. economic history, as I read it, does not support a contention that higher inflation means a stronger stock market. Some believe inflation may be heating up again, so maybe it is appropriate to provide a remedial lesson.

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Asset Allocation Today: The Age of Specialized Money Managers…Northwest Airlines: Smoke Free and Toilet Free Flights?

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Our Major Trend Index has turned positive for the first time in almost a year. We expect a 15%-20% (best guess) move in S&P and DJIA. Secondary stocks should do even better.

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Three weeks on holiday unclutters the mind and clutters the desk. I can’t get excited about New Zealand’s bond market. Yields, while down recently, are still high, but the Kiwi dollar may soon move significantly lower.

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January makes it three months in a row in which the Value Line Index, the NASDAQ Index and most secondary stocks beat the DJIA.

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In early December, we sent all clients a list of trading stocks to buy in December and sell in January.

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