Inside The Stock Market ...trends, cross-currents, and outlook

The Outlook - A Summary of Current Views…Faulty Recollection of 1929…A Crash Still Waiting To Happen…December Bottom Fishing Time…Aussie Bonds…The Leuthold Group Eats Some Garlic

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The cyclical bear market appears to be bottoming, but that is only an opinion. Although improved, the Major Trend Index remains negative. Thus, we remain very cautious. We respect the numbers more than our opinion.

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This issue our conventional asset allocation model is shifting part of its catastrophe insurance gold holding into platinum. We are becoming increasingly concerned about a gold glut in the next decade, while quantum leaps in platinum production are not in prospect.

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For quite some time this publication has been maintaining that “the next cyclical bear market could be very similar to 1962”. At least up to now, the 1987 decline does indeed closely resemble 1962.

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Maybe it's a Minnesota year - the Twins win the World Series and Northwest Airlines leads the pack terms of customer complaints! Also, tracking the impact of Black October around the world.

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The Major Trend Index still negative but improved last week. I doubt that the market has recorded its bear market low, but I do think we are getting close.

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Don Weeden’s two-in-one solution to the debt crisis…Do dividends matter anymore?

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Our view remains unchanged in terms of prudent investment strategy. While trading opportunities may abound in the next few weeks, both long and short, the stock market is downright dangerous.

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This last month, a client and I were discussing what the stock market was like back in the 1960’s and early 1970’s. We saw a number of parallels with the current market.

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A Swede jumps ship at the Leuthold Port, a month of much research recapped, hypocrites on the Hill and Airline miseries.

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Program trading has recently re-emerged as a major market influence. Extraordinary hour to hour volatility has returned. It appears that portfolio insurance futures selling is with us again as a significant volatility force.

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Here are some of the client questions that have been raised recently. Perhaps some of you have some of these same questions.

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This morning on television, I heard a Wall Street pundit proclaim that “the stock market has a bottomless pool of liquidity”. No doubt, when investor fear replaces investor greed, you will hear about the stock market being a “bottomless pit”.

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Historically, small cap stocks have outperformed big cap stocks in about two out of three years. But this has not been the case since mid-1983. What is going on? Has the investment world changed? Will small stocks ever again lead the parade?

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Bring on the Mystics, Special Situation Research...Correction, Correction, Australian Bonds...The Right Guys Won, The Japan Factor

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Well, I have to admit it, this writer counts himself as one of the befuddled. Based on the calls in late June, a number of clients are also in the peer group. So, in terms of the shorter-term market outlook, I’m afraid it is a case of the befuddled leading the befuddled...or not leading the befuddled?

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Mid-course corrections to our annual economic and market projections for 1987. Also, some low down dirty pirates from “out east” made a pass at Minnesota’s beloved Dayton Hudson...our Legislature's response and the Greenmail Solution.

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Our broad-based measure of the stock market’s wellbeing improved in June, gaining some 500+ points. However, this work still remains decidedly negative on balance.

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If you haven’t done so already, I highly recommend you spend some time with the June 1987 20th Anniversary issue of Institutional Investor. Here, we are reproducing one of those remembrances, as Don Weeden recalls his earlier battles with the New York Stock Exchange.

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For most of us, essentially all of the positive 1987 performance has come in the first three months of the year, with most of that in January and February. Still, our equity model was up 5.2% in the second quarter.

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