Inside The Stock Market ...trends, cross-currents, and outlook

Congressional Deficit Reduction Follies: The ultimate result was a cruel joke, with no meaningful spending restraints and a hodgepodge of new taxes, apparently ripe with special interest favors. Yes, it is business as usual in Washington.

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Cyclical bear markets typically decline 25%-30%. In terms of amplitude, the bear market could be more than half over…if it’s a typical bear.

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Secondary stocks were down a big 9%-10% in September compared to 5%-6% declines for the capitalization weighted measures. Year to date, secondary stocks are down twice as much as the cap weighted measures.

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In examining various consumer and producer price measures going back for as long as 1000 years, it was found that prices have risen about 60% of the time and fallen about 40% of the time in the Western world.

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The recent “surprise” downward revision in quarterly real GNP growth served to drive the majority of investment professionals and economists from the “no recession” camp. Also, Junk Mail Busters and Ken Safian lives!

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If you thought the third quarter of 1990 was bad in the U.S. stock market, think of those poor fellas in Tokyo. Of course if your universe is secondary stocks, it was worse than that.

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Here at The Leuthold Group, we are starting to focus on how we are going to structure our equity portfolio for the next bull market.

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In Memory Of Bob Piper...Changes In Perception II...Common Stock Supply Shortage Thesis: Deja Vu......New Zealand Stock Market Update

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Not all the groups Wall Street views as defensive are actually defensive. But others have functioned very well as down market protection.

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In terms of amplitude, the bear market could be about half over. Typical cyclical bear markets decline 25%-30%. This is not a prediction, only the profile of a typical bear market decline. The current version may decline more or it may decline less.

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Polling the Financial Analysts Seminar...Welcome Aboard Mike Hamilton...Program Trading And Politics

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Iraq may have been responsible for knocking a fast 100 points off the market in early August, but the stock market had already rolled over. The Leuthold Group’s Major Trend Index deteriorated significantly with the July 27th calculation. This was before Hussein made his move.

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Our Major Trend Index sell signal on October 30 may not have been premature, at least not in terms of most stocks. Think of it this way: We did give you plenty of time to get out.

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As readers know, we have been bears on Tokyo stocks for several years. But we were early in the past. Recent action leads us to believe the bubble may finally have burst, with the remarkable levitation act about over.

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If the Index does shift to the positive side, how can you (in view of your own intrinsic value work) justify aggressively buying stocks? Considering the downside risk, is it really worth it to aggressively buy equities if your Index now turns positive? If your Index does turn positive, what are the chances it might be a whipsaw?

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In recent months, two studies have been released on the subject of program trading, particularly index arbitrage. One concludes that index arbitrage activities do no real damage. The other tells it like it really is.

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Recently some clients have asked about the status of the Very Long Term Momentum Indicator. This stock market tool is the original creation of the late “Sedge” Coppock. While we have made some modifications in interpretation, it is essentially Coppock’s work.

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Innocents Abroad--Comments On Recent European Trip...Here Come The Trains--High Speed Train Travel...Natural Gas Into Gasoline?

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The Major Trend Index shifted back down into negative territory on July 2. It is also worth noting that our Early Warning Index of intermediate tops turned negative on June 25 and remains negative. Thus, as of today, we still remain cautious and defensive in terms of the stock market.

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The May market surge was both impressive and unexpected. Most of Wall Street was surprised by the magnitude of the move.

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