Inside The Stock Market ...trends, cross-currents, and outlook

Tony Tabell (Delafield, Harvey, Tabell Inc.) often has interesting statistical studies in his weekly market letter. By Tony’s calculations, August historically has been the second best month of the year for the stock market.

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These days everyone seems to be focusing on the bulging supply of new equity, the IPO buildup, new equity financing by existing companies, secondary offerings, etc. How much is too much? When will the new supply burden break the back of the bull market?

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Are Value Managers an Endangered Species? Some observations and analysis. Also, a critical look at the S&P Mid Cap Index and have you ever been in Voice Mail Jail?

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The second quarter of 1991 is history. While the market averages ended the second quarter about where they began, our Major Trend Index has lost quite a bit of ground in the last three months.

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Has the June stock market decline set the stage for a good second half for stocks?

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At this point, our work does not yet confirm a longer term shift in market leadership from growth to cyclical. Perhaps such a confirmation will take place in coming months (we suspect it will).

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Polling the Pros at Leuthold Group Luncheons...Derivative Markets Still Swing the Stock Market Up and Down

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The stars of May, at least the last half of the month, were the stocks and groups most sensitive to the business cycle.

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We have surveyed the record of the S&P 500, examining performance in the first half and second half of each year. We focus here is on years with truly outstanding performance in the first half. What happened to the index in the subsequent six months?

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Last month this publication noted that “deep cyclicals” were intriguing but unimpressive from a technical standpoint. Then in the last two weeks of May, the cyclicals exploded on the upside, especially in the last week of the month.

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The surge so widely advertised in the press and in financial circles primarily reflects a loss of investor and speculator confidence in Europe, not massive new respect and confidence in the U.S. dollar. Also, for the U.S. investor in German bunds or other European bonds, there are really two sets of currency considerations, the specific European currency and then the U.S. dollar.

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In April, polls were taken at the South Florida Financial Analysts Society and at Leuthold Group luncheons in Minneapolis, Chicago, Baltimore and Toronto.

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In April, the media staged a Dow Jones 3000 celebration, but the stock market didn’t. After the April 17 close of 3004, the DJIA beat a hasty retreat with the S&P 500 following suit. By the end of April, the post 3000 decline took the market averages back down to where they started the month.

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The moving average was broken on the upside in March and relative performance was flat in April. In anticipation of this basic change in market focus our equity model has built up secondary stock exposure.

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The worst may be over for New England real estate and the prospects of another major banking crisis smashing the bank stocks have greatly diminished. Thus, in this issue, we are no longer waiting for the “other shoe to drop” and are selectively adding to our bank stock holdings.

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The S&P 500 and DJIA stalled in March, with a rebound in the last week of the month providing the modest 1%-2% gains. Among The Leuthold Group’s 62 equity sectors, 40 (65%) beat the S&P in March. Yes, it was another good month for active managers.

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The Leuthold Group’s Intrinsic Value Benchmarks provides another way of estimating upside potential for the DJIA and S&P 500. Based on the past history of bull market valuation levels, where might the stock market be 12 months from now?

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In the report released on March 27, we witnessed the single largest number of block sales over the history of our work which dates back to 1982.

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The Leuthold Group Major Trend Index has improved 543 points from a month ago, with four of the five broad categories of analytical tools firmly in the bullish camp.

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Jim Floyd has cranked up another interesting index for us to center attention on “where the action is” in the secondary arena. The study provides a good picture of the wide part of the ultimate narrow door - a group of secondary issues dominating current trading activity.

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